RALEIGH – After the two national political conventions, numerous flights of TV ads, five new publicly released voter surveys, and three televised debates, North Carolina’s gubernatorial race has become one of the most competitive statewide races in the nation.
On Tuesday, Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue and Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory appeared sequentially, but not simultaneously, at a Raleigh forum sponsored by the N.C. Coalition for Lobbying and Government Reform, of which I am a member. They will square off on TV for the last time this Friday, at a Cary debate on education issues sponsored by the Public School Forum, though McCrory will appear a couple more times next month at broadcast forums with Libertarian candidate Mike Munger (Perdue was invited but declined).
Now is a good time for a status check on the race.
Going into the 2008 cycle, many political pros I know believed that Republicans would lack the resources and personnel to mount an effective challenge against Perdue, whom they assumed would defeat State Treasurer Richard Moore in the Democratic primary. They were right to predict Perdue’s nomination, though Moore put up a spirited fight. But they were wrong in assuming that Democratic legislators and the state board of elections would ensure an overwhelming financial advantage for Perdue by blocking significant national assistance to the Republican challenger, as happened in 2000 and 2004. The Republican Governors Association is already on the air with a fairly heavily buy targeting Perdue, just as out-of-state Democratic groups have run lots of ads against McCrory.
Insiders were also wrong in assuming that Perdue, with two decades of experience in the General Assembly and state politics, would clearly outperform her opponent on the campaign trail. McCrory is an experienced candidate himself, a better debater and extemporaneous speaker. There’s little evidence that he is suffering under the so-called Charlotte curse – quite possibly because for GOP gubernatorial candidates there’s more evidence for a Charlotte blessing than a curse – and while he continues to be outgunned in the air wars, McCrory is obviously still in the hunt.
For one thing, he’s benefited from an upswing in overall Republican enthusiasm attributable to the party’s convention bounce. There’s also a clear indication in polls that North Carolinians are disaffected with incumbents and the status quo. That helps Democrats in federal races but McCrory in the race for the governor’s mansion, which has been in Democratic hands for 16 years.
Last week, there were five new polls released in the gubernatorial contest. (North Carolina has one of the most-polled electorates in the country this year.) Perdue publicized her own internal survey, which put her up 46-40. Two polls – from the left-leaning Public Policy Polling and the right-leaning Civitas Institute – showed one-point Perdue edges (41-40 and 40-39, respectively). Two other polls – from Survey USA/WTVD and Democracy 2000/Daily Kos – tilted strongly in the opposite direction, giving McCrory leads of 49-41 and 47-42, respectively. Munger’s showing was from two to five points.
The five samples ranged from 600 to 671 interviews. If you average the results, a practice that isn’t methodologically pristine but has nevertheless become commonplace in national poll analysis, you find that the race is breathtakingly close at 43 percent for McCrory, 42 percent for Perdue, and 3 percent for Munger. With an average of 12 percent undecided, the race is also volatile. Because the gubernatorial race lacks the amount of name recognition and the breadth and depth of news coverage devoted to the presidential contest, it’s likely that a fair number of Perdue, McCrory, and even Munger voters are “soft,” not yet firm in their preference. It wouldn’t surprise me if a fifth or more of North Carolina voters remain up for grabs as of mid-September.
The last few weeks of the campaign will prove critical. Perdue not only is no longer seen inside the Beltline as the inevitable victor, but she now clearly recognizes that she’s in the fight of her political life. Ditto for Pat McCrory, who has never lost a race in Charlotte – but is now competing in a far larger and very different arena.
In the homestretch, it’s not hard to discern the campaigns’ goals. The McCrory camp must convince disgruntled swing voters that he can bring the change they want in Raleigh. The Perdue camp must convince those voters that while reform is needed, McCrory is too extreme or risky a choice.
Sound familiar? Perhaps McCain and Perdue strategists should compare notes.
Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation.