RALEIGH – Yesterday, I reviewed some of the key races that will decide partisan control of the North Carolina Senate, which has been in Democratic hands for more than a century. The North Carolina House features no less drama in the coming election cycle, the difference being only that the chamber has already supplied more than its fair share of political drama during the past decade.

Republicans seized control of the House in 1994 in the midst of a statewide and national GOP surge. The wave receded in 1996 and drew back far enough in 1998 for Democrats to regain control – albeit a tenuous one. Close margins and bipartisan coalitions in the race for Speaker of the House have typified the political situation.

Get used to it. The “interim” House districts approved last month by Judge Knox Jenkins eliminated the Democrats’ attempt to gerrymander their way into a perpetual majority – according to NC FREE’s analysis, the thrown-out maps would have created 59 Democratic seats, meaning they would have had to win only 2 of 14 swing districts to get a majority – but the judge did not hand a corresponding advantage to the GOP.

Instead, the new maps would, by everyone’s estimation, leave both parties well short of a majority in safe seats. My analysis is that the new House map creates 47 seats thatare safely or moderately Democratic, 52 that are safely or moderately Republican, and 21 swing seats. Of these 21, though, I peg 13 as tilting Democratic and 8 as tilting Republican, so you can call the whole thing a draw from a redistricting standpoint.

John Davis from NC FREE sees the House districts in a light more favorable to Democrats. He puts 52 seats into the Democratic column, 49 into the Republican column, and 19 swings. Ryan Thornburg of Carolina Political Report also projects 52 Democratic seats, with 51 Republican seats and 17 swings. As you can see, there are some disagreements but the general consensus is that the N.C. House will be very much up for grabs in 2002.

Let me describe the 21 key battleground districts as I see them:

• The Down East Half-Dozen

As in the Senate situation, you can really see the impact of Republican gains along coastal North Carolina in the House map. There are now six swing districts Down East, including three with Democratic incumbents likely to run again: Marian McLawhorn in the 9th (Pitt County), Russell Tucker in the 10th (Duplin and Lenoir), and Phil Baddour in the 11th (Wayne). I’m calling the first two as Democratic tilts and Baddour’s as tilting slightly Republican.

Further north in Nash County, Republican Gene Arnold is retiring in the 25th, with businessman Bill Daughtridge likely to pick up the banner in a GOP-tilting but competitive race. And there are two coastal districts, the 14th (Onslow) and the 16th (Pender and New Hanover) that are open but tilt Republican.

• The Western Wake-Up

Again like the Senate plan, the House creates a competitive situation in Western Wake County. Incumbent Republican Art Pope isn’t running again in the 34th, which tilts ever so slightly Republican, while incumbent Democrat Jennifer Weiss will likely run again in the 35th, with a corresponding Democratic lean. Recently relocated Northerners and Midwesterners, state employees and university denizens, moderates with fiscally conservative but socially moderate views, and activist groups devoted to environmental, racial, and anti-tax causes could play a key role in a low-turnout election.

• The Battle for Fayetteville

Few metro areas can boast the number of competitive seats found in and around Fayetteville. In the southern end of Cumberland County, two swing seats tilt somewhat Democratic: the 44th, where Democrat Bill Hurley is retiring, and the 45th, where Democrat Alex Warner is not. To the north, Republican Mia Morris is in a 41st District now tilting Democratic and Republican Don Davis, just over the line in Harnett, is leaving a seat that retains a GOP lean.

• The Piedmont Triad

Three seats along the I-85 corridor are in play, all three tilting Democratic but not by much: the 59th in Greensboro, the 77th in Rowan County, and the 81st in Davidson. Democratic incumbents Maggie Jeffus, Lorene Coates, and Hugh Holliman will likely draw credible opponents.

• The Metrolina Fringe

Most House seats in the Charlotte area, and there are many of them, are not swings. The inner city is strongly Democratic, suburban counties are strongly Republican, and within Mecklenburg County itself a combination of factors has left most districts moderately or safely in one column or the other.

There are two exceptions. In the 99th, incumbent Democrat Drew Saunders must defend a Northeastern Mecklenburg that has been trending towards the GOP in local races but that also includes healthy doses of government and university employees and minority voters, who tend to stick with the Democrats. Over in Gaston County, a new 109th District stretches northwest from Gastonia to the Lincoln and Cleveland county lines. It tilts somewhat Republican.

• The Mountain Climb

It is here, strangely, that I think Republicans may have to do exceptionally well to win the House. I say “strangely” because many are used to thinking of the mountains as inevitably Republican, but that misses important local differences and the tendency for some voters to split their tickets – voting for GOP candidates in statewide races but for Democrats, often of a moderate-to-conservative reputation, for the legislature.

Of the four swing seats here, one – the 86th now represented by Democratic Walter Church in Burke County – tilts Republican. He has proven difficult to beat, though. Two Democratic-tilting seats are currently held by Republicans: Mark Crawford in the 115th (southeastern Buncombe County) and Maggie Carpenter in the 118th (Yancey, Madison, and part of Haywood counties). Finally, a new 112th District, including Rutherford and a part of Cleveland, is an open seat with a minuscule Democratic tilt.

If Republicans can sweep these 4 mountain seats, they can afford a couple of losses in GOP-tilting swings elsewhere and still win a 61-seat majority. Of course, that wouldn’t necessarily settle the issue of choosing a speaker . . .