RALEIGH – I’ve written before about the false impression prevalent in the political class that North Carolina is tops in education reform. Today, let me illustrate the point with some data from the National Assessment of Educational Progress, the criterion-referenced test given periodically to a sample of fourth- and eighth-graders.

There is no doubt that North Carolina posted impressive gains in NAEP scores in the years just after the federal government began testing state samples in the late 1980s. In some categories, our state showed some of the largest proficiency gains in the country through the mid- to late-1990s. But since then, North Carolina’s performance has been lackluster. One might call it the Great Pause.

Let’s begin with North Carolina’s strongest trend, in mathematics. From 2000 to 2007, our eighth-graders posted an eight-point gain in the math scale score, to 284. The national average also gained eight points, but remained slightly lower at 280. Take a look at how some of our neighbors and other key states fared:

North Carolina: +8 to 284
United States: +8 to 280
California: +11 to 270
Georgia: +9 to 275
Maryland: +14 to 286
Massachusetts: +19 to 298
New York: +9 to 280
South Carolina: +17 to 282
Tennessee: +12 to 274
Texas: +12 to 286
Virginia: +13 to 288

Particularly striking is the gain in South Carolina, a state with more socioeconomic challenges than its neighbor to the north. While North Carolina was early to introduce NAEP-like testing and reform its mathematics curriculum in the early 1990s, helping it boost math performance above its peers, many are now catching up.

The story gets worse when we turn to reading. The test years don’t precisely match up, but comparing 1998 and 2007 reveals the gist of the problem:

North Carolina: -3 to 259
United States: +0 at 261
California: -1 to 251
Florida: +5 to 260
Georgia: +1 to 259
Maryland: +4 to 265
Massachusetts: +5 to 273
New York: -1 to 264
South Carolina: +3 to 257
Tennessee: +1 to 259
Texas: +0 at 261
Virginia: +1 to 267

Finally, take a look at these science-test scores from roughly the same period (2000 to 2005):

North Carolina: -1 to 144
United States: -1 to 147
California: +8 to 136
Georgia: +2 to 144
Maryland: -1 to 145
Massachusetts: +3 to 161
South Carolina: +5 to 145
Tennessee: +0 at 145
Texas: +0 at 143
Virginia: +4 to 155

Those who argue that North Carolina ranks at the bottom in state educational achievement are mistaken. They are misusing SAT averages, stuck in the past, or both. However, those exuberant North Carolina politicians and activists who claim that our state is the regional or national exemplar for school reform are also mistaken. Poorer neighbors such as South Carolina and Tennessee have actually been outpacing North Carolina in educational progress in recent years, and we haven’t outpaced the nation in a long time.

Assessing causality is tricky here. During the period in question, North Carolina’s test-taking population changed in ways likely both to improve (immigration from the North and Midwest) as well as pull down (immigration from non-English-speaking countries) the state’s average scale scores. Most of the state’s celebrated school-reform programs – Smart Start, the ABCs accountability program, teacher-pay hikes, and class-size reductions – postdated North Carolina’s strongest gains in NAEP scores. After they were fully implemented, the Great Pause began.

As a certain king might say, it’s a puzzlement.

Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation.