RALEIGH – North Carolina is experiencing something unprecedented in modern times: an unpopular first-term governor.
I’d have worded the statement even more forcefully – that North Carolina hasn’t had an truly unpopular governor in recent memory – if you were reading this column a couple of years ago. But then came the implosion of former Gov. Mike Easley. During 2007 and 2008, Easley’s political fortunes took a massive turn for the worse, thanks to revelations about a mismanaged reform initiative in mental health, his frequent practice of making personal trips on the taxpayers’ dime, his disdain for the state’s public records laws, and his wife’s costly overseas travel and “job” at North Carolina State University.
By the end of his second term, Mike Easley was one of the least-popular governors in the United States. Only the likes of Rod Blagojevich and Jon Corzine were in worse shape. The putrid aroma emanating from the Governor’s Mansion was a major handicap for the Democrat seeking to replace Easley, Beverly Perdue. That she barely won against Republican Pat McCrory in one of the most pro-Democratic election cycles in decades – a cycle in which North Carolina voted Democratic for president and U.S. Senate – can be attributed in large measure to the failures of her predecessor.
But here we are in midsummer of Perdue’s first year, and her approval ratings are horrendous. The continuing Easley scandals are clearly a factor, but hardly the only one.
The polls all agree on this, despite differences in methodology. A just-released poll for Southern Political Report showed Perdue at 36 percent job approval and 56 percent disapproval. The Democratic firm Public Policy Polling has been polling the question for months, and the June numbers were its worst ever: 30 percent approval, 53 percent disapproval.
As for the conservative Civitas Institute, its monthly polls typically don’t find as much public disapproval of any politician – perhaps because of the nature of its live-interviewer, policy-heavy methodology – but the picture is still not a good one for Perdue, with a 36 percent approval/38 percent disapproval in the June survey.
During times of economic recession and public unrest, the folks in charge tend to get blamed and take it on the chin. Just ask any Republican who was in office before 2006 and is now “retired” from politics. Given North Carolina’s 11 percent jobless rate and daily headlines about economic and fiscal woes, then, it’s unlikely that any sitting governor would be polling well.
But approval ratings in the low to mid 30s? That’s not evidence of softness. That’s a cave-in.
I think Perdue has several problems, all partially of her own making. First, in the public eye she remains tethered to a former administration that is increasingly viewed as ineffectual and corrupt. She should have been much more forceful in denunciating Easley and, through personnel decisions, separately herself from his administration.
Second, whether she likes it or not, Perdue is a politician of the status quo. She exemplifies it, having been in positions of prominence in the legislature for more than two decades. She was present for many of the policy decisions that have now came back to haunt the political class in Raleigh.
Despite tough talk about the budget during her first couple of months, Perdue’s basic message has been, “I’ve been around a long time, so trust me to make the right decision.” But the public hears “She’s been around a long time…” and finishes the sentence with “so we shouldn’t trust her.”
While most Americans slogging their way through the economic downturn are disenchanted with politicians, North Carolinians have experienced one of the biggest reversals of fortune in the country. Having been told for years by politicians steeped in the state’s Blarney Tradition that they lived in one of the nation’s economic pacesetters, North Carolinians are coming to understand that they actually reside in one of the nation’s economic basketcases.
They feel misled and swindled. They’re looking for someone to blame. Perdue is handy.
Finally, the governor hasn’t looked much like a leader lately. Probably in deference in House and Senate leaders, Perdue essentially went dark for a couple of months while state lawmakers fashioned their budget proposals. Then last week, the governor suddenly kicked off a series of rallies across the state to call for a $1.5 billion tax increase – an unpopular policy for which she had not laid the political groundwork. The events seemed slapdash and her rhetoric was inelegant and unpersuasive.
Perdue has plenty of time to rebuild a political base for reelection in 2012. The immediate problem for her is 2010, when voters will elect the General Assembly that will draw House and Senate districts for the next decade. Right now, the economy and Mike Easley are not the only threats to continued Democratic governance in Raleigh.
Beverly Perdue’s unpopularity is, too.
Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation