RALEIGH – It’s a Democratic year in North Carolina.

Well, it’s a Democratic year in the United States, for the most part, so you might think that the party’s apparently good fortune in North Carolina this year should be no surprise. But for at least two reasons, the fact that Republicans are mostly playing defense in N.C. House races, and may not gain what they hoped for in the N.C. Senate, is striking.

First, there’s Jim Black. Remember him? The soon-to-be-former Speaker of the House, and perhaps even the soon-to-be-former representative in the House from southern Mecklenburg County, has more than a whiff of scandal around him. Close aides and supporters have been found guilty of illegality. Former Rep. Michael Decker has accused Black of bribery. An indictment seems imminent. The resulting legal difficulties have forced Black to spend most of his $1 million-plus campaign treasury on attorneys rather than competitive House races around the state.

Second, there’s public disaffection. With only 43 percent of North Carolinians seeing their state on the right track in last month’s Civitas poll and nearly half disapproving of the job performance of the state legislature, there is clearly a pool of voters who, in an mid-term election with no high-profile statewide races, could be induced to turn out and vote for change in a state governed by Democrats.

Republicans seem to have been unable to convert these potential assets into political momentum, however. The common explanation is money – Democrats having a lot more of it, sometimes four or five times as much in key races – but I think this factor’s significance is misunderstood and somewhat exaggerated. Yes, campaign funds translate into campaign speech. No matter how persuasive you believe your message might be, it is irrelevant unless you have the resources to communicate it. But don’t mistake cause for effect. In part, Democrats have dominated the fundraising cycle precisely because the community of major North Carolina donors simply believes that Democrats are going to prevail. These business executives, attorneys, professionals, retirees, and civic leaders are betting on the winning team. It’s a team playing in its own stadium, with friendly refs. And it tends to recruit more skilled, motivated players.

It is also true, though, that many of the North Carolina donors who might swing both ways – who support state Democrats and federal Republicans – see Democratic control of state government as in their interest. Some derive jobs or contracts from government expansion. Some want state tax breaks or subsidies for their businesses, which Democrats are more likely to favor than Republicans. And some believe that Democratic policies on state issues are preferable – such as massive spending on new educational initiatives.

Thus, Republicans will do better in races for North Carolina legislature when three things happen: 1) a reduction of gerrymandering and other advantages of incumbency, 2) an improvement in candidate recruitment, and 3) the identification and recruitment of new donors, including entrepreneurs and others whose commitment to free enterprise and liberty outweigh any greed for government largesse.

Of course, it might also help if GOP legislative candidates weren’t seeking office at a time when many Republican-base voters are angry at their national leaders for profligate spending and ethical transgressions.

On to the match-ups for Tuesday. Based on previous analysis, money flows, and interviews with Democratic and Republican politicos, here’s what the battleground looks like. In the House, Democrats enjoy a 63-57 majority. There are pockets of contested races in the east, Piedmont, and west (incumbent candidate or party listed first):

• District 3 – Rep. Alice Graham Underhill (D) vs. Michael Speciale (R).
• District 6 – Rep. Arthur Williams (D) vs. Beaufort Commissioner Hood Richardson (R).
• District 9 – Rep. Marion McLawhorn (D) vs. former Sen. Tony Moore (R).
• District 10 – Willie Ray Starling (R) vs. Kinston City Councilman Van Braxton (D).
• District 17 – Rep. Bonner Stiller (R) vs. Democrat Allen Dameron.
• District 36 – Rep. Nelson Dollar (R) vs. Greer Beaty (D).
• District 41 – Rep. Russell Capps (R) vs. Ty Harrell (D).
• District 45 – Rep. Rick Glazier (D) vs. former Rep. Alex Warner (R).
• District 51 – Harnett Commissioner Tim McNeil (R) vs. former Rep. Jimmy Love (D).
• District 52 – Joe Boylan (R) vs. independents Bud Shaver and Gerald Galloway.
• District 77 – Rep. Lorene Coates (D) vs. Susan Morris (R).
• District 86 – Rep. Walter Church (D) vs. Hugh Blackwell (R).
• District 90 – Rep. Jim Harrell (D) vs. Jack Conaway (R).
• District 93 – Rep. Gene Wilson (R) vs. Cullie Tarlton (D).
• District 100 – Rep. Jim Black (D) vs. Hal Jordan (R).
• District 111 – Rep. Tim Moore (R) vs. Betsy Fonvielle (D).
• District 115 – Rep. Bruce Goforth (D) vs. Eric Gorny (R).
• District 116 – Charles Thomas (R) vs. Doug Jones (D).
• District 119 – Rep. Phil Haire (D) vs. former Rep. Marge Carpenter (R).

This is a longer list than you might expect, but that’s because the parties and interest groups are betting a least a little on some low-probability outcomes, such as Fonvielle beating Moore in the 111th or Gorny beating Goforth in the 115th. Of these 19 seats, Republicans would have to win 13 to achieve a majority in the House.

As for the Senate, the list is much shorter:

• District 2 – Sen. Pete Bland (D, appointed, former sheriff and county commissioner) vs. Rep. Jean Preston (R).
• District 9 – Sen. Julia Boseman (D) vs. Al Roseman (R).
• District 24 – Sen. Hugh Webster (R) vs. Tony Foriest (D).
• District 46 – Sen. Walter Dalton (D) vs. Wes Westmoreland (R).
• District 47 – Sen. Keith Presnell (R) vs. former Sen. Joe Sam Queen (D).
• District 50 – Sen. John Snow (D) vs. Ken McKim (R).

The Democrats’ 29-21 Senate majority is out of reach of the Republicans. Shrinking the margin by a seat or two is doable, though. Still, all indications are that this is, indeed, a Democratic year.

Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation.