A Down-Ballot Checklist for Tuesday

RALEIGH – Tucked underneath all those other layers of North Carolina political contests about to make news on Election Night, you’ll find two stories with statewide import – although each story will be told with local returns.

The first story will be the outcome of some two-dozen key legislative primaries, from the mountains to the coast, where the nominees are likely to be either shoo-ins or competitive in the fall. The second story will be the outcome of another round of local tax referenda in nearly one-quarter of North Carolina counties.

It’s hard to summarize the General Assembly races to watch on Tuesday night. Each contest has unique elements and interesting personalities. At the risk of overgeneralization, however, I guess I’d put them into three groups: incumbents in trouble, swing seats in play, and open seats in demand. Let’s start with the incumbents facing what appear to be significant primary challenges.

• Senate 3: Clark Jenkins (i) vs. former Rep. Shelly Willingham vs. Henry Williams in Democratic primary.
Willingham, a former Edgecombe County commissioner and school-board member who was appointed to the NC House for the 2001-02 session, has run and lost twice in this heavily Democratic Eastern North Carolina Senate district. But the reason political observers believe Jenkins may be a bit more at risk this year is the Obama factor, which could boost African-American turnout enough for Willingham, who is black, to have a shot. He is explicitly arguing that his race should be a factor in the election. Williams, also black, has previously run for office as both a Democrat and Republican.

• Senate 22: Harris Blake (i) vs. County Commissioner Cindy Morgan in Republican primary.
In this Moore County district, Blake has faced and overcome serious challenges in the past. But Morgan, the wife of former House Co-Speaker Richard Morgan, is well-financed and well-known in a county where Republicans remain sharply divided. A saving grace for Blake may be that the district also extends into Harnett County, where he is known from multiple Senate campaigns but Morgan is not. The winner will face former Dunn Mayor Abraham Oudeh in November.

• Senate 23: Ellie Kinnaird (i) vs. County Commissioner Moses Carey, Jr. in Democratic primary.
I wouldn’t be inclined to list Sen. Kinnaird, a former Carrboro mayor, as facing a serious challenge in this Orange County district, but others more knowledgeable than I in local Democratic politics believe that there is at least an outside chance that Carey, a prominent African-American politician from the northern part of the county, might give her a scare.

• Senate 42: Austin Allran (i) vs. County Commissioner Kitty Barnes in Republican primary.
Barnes, a Catawba commissioner, is essentially running to Allran’s left in this safe Republican seat – refusing to take the same no-new-taxes pledge he has and criticizing his record bringing state money home to the district. However, she’s also questioning his votes over the years on other members’ local bills authorizing increases in hotel taxes. Allran has served 11 terms in the Senate and three before that in the House, so he’s an extremely well-known quantity in the region.

• House 8: Edith Warren (i) vs. County Commissioner Ronnie Smith in Democratic primary.
See the Jenkins-Willingham dynamic described above. Smith is vice chairman of the Martin County Commission and black. Pitt County’s Warren is a retired educator and white. An Obama surge might upend her – but then again, a Clinton surge among female and older voters in Pitt and Martin counties would boost her.

• House 22: William Brisson (i) vs. Greg Taylor in Democratic primary.
A noteworthy election result in 2006 was Brisson’s defeat of longtime Rep. Edd Nye in this Bladen-Cumberland district. Now Taylor, who once defeated Brisson in a county commissioner election and served 12 years on the Bladen board, is challenging him, again, citing the region’s economic-development needs and questioning Brisson’s effectiveness in Raleigh. The incumbent stresses that he’s the only full-time farmer in the legislature and serves on committees important to the district.

• House 52: Joe Boylan (i) vs. Lane Toomey vs. Jamie Boles in Republican primary.
Boylan, who defeated Morgan two years ago in one of the highest-profile legislative races in the state, would have had a tough GOP primary this year no matter what he did. But after crashing his car while driving under the influence and publicly admitting an alcohol problem, Boylan become clearly endangered. Toomey is a retired Army lieutenant colonel and engineer who serves in local GOP leadership posts. Boles is a funeral-home operator in Southern Pines who supported Boylan until recently.

• House 61: Laura Wiley (i) vs. George Ragsdale in Republican primary.
Wiley is seeking her third term in the House from this Guilford County district, which she wrested from Republican Rep. Steve Wood in 2004. Ragsdale is a banker with little political experience but a storied local name (e.g. Ragsdale High School) and generally conservative positions. A big topic of conversation is the health of the international furniture market in High Point. Ragsdale says he could secure more state subsidies for the market, a claim that Wiley (plausibly) rebuts.

• House 67: Ken Furr (i) vs. Nalin Mehta vs. Justin Burr in Republican primary.
Furr, a former chairman of the Stanly County Commission and owner of Stony Mountain Vineyards, was appointed last year to replace Rep. David Almond, who resigned after a scandal. His GOP challengers are Mehta, a physician and current Stanly commissioner, and Burr, a businessman and former chairman of the Stanly Republican Party. Mehta and Burr had also sought last year’s appointment to the seat, losing out to Furr in a party committee vote. All three candidates are talking about economic development, taxes, and illegal immigration (Mehta, a legal immigrant from India three decades ago, is particularly passionate).

• House 95: Karen Ray (i) vs. Grey Mills in Republican primary.
Ray defeated former Rep. Robert Brawley in the GOP primary two years ago in this Iredell-centered district, and now faces another spirited challenge from Grey Mills, a Mooresville attorney who formerly chaired the county party and is backed by former Rep. Frank Mitchell. Mills is challenging Ray on her vote for Jim Black as speaker and what he sees as unfair treatment of Iredell in state road and school funding, among other issues.

• House 99: Drew Saunders (i) vs. Nick Mackey in Democratic primary.
Mackey is the controversial lawyer whose “election” to the post of Mecklenburg County sheriff was later invalidated. His supporters cried racism. Saunders is a longtime House member who was noticeably charitable towards former Rep. Thomas Wright of Wilmington during the latter’s legal and criminal troubles. Wright’s supporters had also cried racism. Get the picture?

• House 103: Jim Gulley (i) vs. Edith Brotherton vs. Larry Hale in Republican primary.
Gulley is a six-term representative from this safe Republican seat in southern and eastern Mecklenburg. A retired businessman afflicted with Parkinson’s, Gulley has drawn a stiff challenge from two experienced but unsuccessful candidates who say he’s ineffective in Raleigh: Brotherton, a real-estate agent who ran for Senate in 1994 and 1996 (but helped get her son elected to the House in the 1980s), and Hale, an insurance agent who ran against Gulley in 2002 and 2006 and lost two other House races in the early 1980s.

The next set of legislative primaries to watch involves open seats where incumbents are either retiring or seeking higher office.

• Senate 5: A six-way Democratic contest to replace retiring Sen. John Kerr.
This district, centered on Goldsboro, not only features a spirited Democratic primary but could well be competitive in the fall for Republican nominee Louis Pate, currently a member of the House. The Dems are former Rep. Charles Johnson, former senator And current Winterville Alderman Tony Moore, state board of education member Kathy Taft, former Wayne Community College President Ed Wilson, longtime activist and SEANC lobbyist Chuck Stone, and Snow Hill Mayor Don Davis. It’s chaotic, but my understanding is that the presidential-turnout dynamics favor putting Taft and Davis (an African-American) into the June runoff. That would be interesting given that neither is from Kerr’s home county of Wayne (Taft is from Pitt County and Snow Hill is in Greene County). I had thought Kerr’s endorsement of Wilson would count for more, but his constituency is split between several candidates.

• Senate 12: David Rouzer vs. Nena Reeves to replace Republican Sen. Fred Smith, running for governor.
Rouzer has worked as a lobbyist and for Jesse Helms, Elizabeth Dole, and the Department of Agriculture. Reeves owned a health-staffing firm in Johnston County. She’s gone after Rouzer aggressively on immigration, alleging that he lobbies for looser restrictions, while Rouzer has aggressively defended himself and touted his conservative credentials. Citing news reports and public records, Rouzer recently distributed a mailer alleging that Reeves’ firm had engaged in Medicaid fraud. Reeves has filed a slander suit pointing out that the alleged activity occurred after she sold the business. This Johnston-Wayne seat will go Republican in the fall.

• Senate 16: Jack Nichols vs. Josh Stein vs. Mike Shea in Democratic primary to replace Sen. Janet Cowell, running for state treasurer.
This Wake County district leans Democratic, and would be a prime spot for either of the leading candidates – Nichols, a former county commissioner and lobbyist for Gov. Jim Hunt, and Stein, a former aide to Attorney General Roy Cooper and Sen. John Edwards – to make his mark in the state legislature. The competition is fierce and, at least on the web, a bit ugly. The two have split the endorsements of major Democratic and liberal interest groups. Definitely a race to track closely on Tuesday.

• Senate 39: Andy Dulin vs. Bob Rucho in Republican primary to replace Robert Pittenger, running for lieutenant governor.
The Dulin-Rucho race is one of hottest and most-expensive legislative primaries this cycle. Dulin is a Charlotte city councilman and real-estate broker. Rucho is a dentist and former state senator who was forced into Pittenger’s district after redistricting and decided to take a break from politics. Dulin is attacking Rucho for voting for numerous local-tax bills while in the state senate. Rucho criticizes Dulin for not understanding the legislative process and for a controversial relationship with a condo developer. This safe Republican seat could yield one of the most exciting results of the night.

• Senate 46: Phil Clark vs. Keith Melton in Democratic primary to replace Sen. Walter Dalton, running for lieutenant governor.
This will be a highly watched contest in the fall, with Dalton giving up one of the Senate’s only true swing seats and longtime Republican Rep. Debbie Clary in the running. Melton is the Clerk of Superior Court in Rutherford County. Clark, a businessman, is running as a “conservative Democrat.” Melton rebuffed Clark’s challenge to stage a debate.

• House 25: Randy Stewart vs. Carnell Taylor in Democratic primary to face Republican W.B. Bullock in the race to replace Rep. Bill Daughtridge, running for state treasurer.
This district in the Rocky Mount area is competitive but tilts a bit to the Republicans. Stewart is a physical therapist and former Nash County commissioner. Taylor is a businessman and former training director for the Highway Patrol who unsuccessfully challenged Daughtridge two years ago. Bullock is a Rocky Mounty city councilman endorsed by Daughtridge and former Rep. Gene Arnold. Another GOP candidate, Robert Coats, will be listed on the ballot but has actually dropped out and endorsed Bullock.

• House 92: Dempsey Brewer vs. Darrell McCormick in Republican primary to replace retiring Rep. George Holmes.
This safe GOP seat in northwestern NC pits Brewer, a retired engineer and farmer who previously ran for the Yadkin County Commission, against McCormick, a commercial real-estate broker who also previously sought election to the county commission. Both are local GOP precinct chairmen and running on conservative themes. The Democratic nominee will be Ric Marshall, not that it’s likely to matter.

• House 94: Roger Smithey vs. Shirley Randleman vs. John Reavill in Republican primary to replace retiring Rep. Tracy Walker.
The leading candidates appear to be Smithey, a developer and a former Wilkes County commissioner, and Randleman, who retired in 2007 as clerk of court in Wilkes. Again, the primary will determine the general in this election. Smithey is emphasizing his business experience and issues related to regulation and agriculture. Randleman argues that her extensive experience in the state court system will help her identify wasteful spending and poor priorities in the state budget.

• House 107: Mary Nixon Richardson vs. Kelly Alexander in Democratic primary.
With Rep. Pete Cunningham retiring, this safely Democratic open seat in Mecklenburg pits Mary Richardson, longtime political activist and widow of the late state Sen. Jim Richardson, against former North Carolina NAACP president Kelly Alexander, a funeral director whose family has also long been active in Charlotte politics (his father and grandfather ran for office and his uncle, Fred, was the first black elected to the Charlotte City Council and served as a state senator). Key issues in this urban district include education, gang activist, and traffic congestion.

Finally, there a couple of competitive seats with an incumbent and an opposing party primary:

• House 3: Norman Sanderson vs. Renee Sisk in Republican primary to take on Rep. Alice Underhill.
Underhill’s Eastern NC district has enough Republicans and conservative-leaning independents and Democrats to draw serious challengers every cycle. This time around, the GOP primary pits Sanderson, a day-care operator and former sheriff’s deputy who chairs the Pamlico County Republican Party, against Sisk, a Craven County commissioner who previously served two terms on a town council.

• Senate 45: Jerry Butler vs. Dwight Shook in Republican primary to take on Democratic incumbent Steve Goss.
One of the shockers in the 2006 election cycle was Goss winning this traditional Republican seat centered on Watauga County, thanks in part to an unprecedented turnout effort by Democratic activists at ASU. Now many political observers believe Republicans have a solid opportunity to reclaim the seat. Butler, a dentist, faces community-college teacher and former county GOP chairman Dwight Shook. Both are running on conservative themes such as property rights, school choice, and resistance to tax increases.

The other overlooked story of Tuesday’s primary elections appears not to have much to do with party primaries. Last year, the General Assembly authorized counties to hold referenda to approve a quarter-cent rise in the sales tax, a hike in the land-transfer tax, or both. In November, most North Carolina voters asked by their counties to approve these taxes said no. Now, the May primary features transfer-tax votes in four counties and sales-tax votes in 20 counties. You can read what JLF analysts have to say about some of these local tax debates here.

My guess is that a higher proportion of the tax votes will pass this time. It won’t be because North Carolinians as a whole have come to believe they are undertaxed. It will, instead, be a product of what is likely to be a large turnout differential between the Democratic and Republican bases. The Obama-Clinton contest will jack up Democratic turnout far beyond the usual numbers for a gubernatorial primary.

It will be fascinating to see what happens. I know these races won’t draw most of the attention from the cameras and talking heads, but they have the potential to affect North Carolina government markedly for years to come.

Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation.