RALEIGH – Here’s my final political potpourri of the 2008 cycle, assembled in between stretches of far more important weekend activities (i.e. Halloween, a soccer game, high-school football, a Bond movie marathon, and three trips to the sub shop):

• Having carefully considered all the polls, predictions, and early-voting trends in the presidential race, I’ve finally come to the conclusion that the American electorate will vote in the guy they think will cut their taxes more.

• In North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race, I think voters may end up selecting the senator with a history of voting for tax reductions and sound budgeting. The winner was also against the $700 billion government takeover – I mean, bailout – of the nation’s financial-services industry.

• Now, what’s all this about the death of conservatism?

• According to historical patterns, Pat McCrory has no business being anywhere near Beverly Perdue in the polls. In the past, Republicans have needed strong support from their national ticket to capture the governor’s mansion from the Democrats. This year, McCrory doesn’t have it. But he does enjoy the famous Charlotte blessing.

• A former staffer for Janet Cowell gave Bill Daughtridge a huge opportunity. But did the event occur too late, with public attention too fixated on races further up on the ballot?

• The 2008 election cycle was the last hurrah of the mainstream news media as currently constituted, a fact that was well-understood by journalists and probably influenced their coverage. By 2012, some metro daily newspapers will no longer exist, while many others will no longer publish daily print editions. Broadcast news will also look significantly different. The Republic will survive. And some media companies will actually become quite profitable in the new online market for news and information. Others will go “poof!” So did Consolidated Buggy & Surry Company and the International Telegraph Operators Union.

• We’re about to hear a lot more from the Blue Dog Coalition in Congress – a moderate-to-conservative faction of Democrats that seems poised to expand its members well above the 50-percent mark. Heath Shuler and Mike McIntyre are North Carolina’s members.

• North Carolina politicos seem fascinated by the daily march of early-voting numbers. Call me a stick-in-the-mud, but I have yet to see any evidence that past elections have ever been swayed by early voting, or that early voting necessarily increases total voter turnout. We’ll have a huge turnout this year, but I believe it would have happened anyway. The vast majority of early voters would have voted even if they had to send in absentee ballots or show up on Election Day. But I’m empirically minded, so perhaps after Tuesday I’ll change my tune.

• Right now, the tune I can’t keep out of my head is “Won’t Get Fooled Again” by the Who. Naw, it’s not because of the “meet the new boss/same as the old boss” lyric. I just like the keyboard part.

• The 2010 races for Congress and legislature will begin on Wednesday at about 2 pm. Many political folks will want to sleep in late. If Kay Hagan doesn’t beat Elizabeth Dole, she’ll soon be in the hunt to take on Richard Burr. Depending on the outcome of other statewide races, she may find the Democratic primary crowded, however.

• And, naturally, the 2012 presidential race will begin soon afterward. This will be true among Democrats if, somehow, Barack Obama manages to fall short on Election Day. It will be true among Republicans regardless, on the assumption that John McCain would be a one-termer. I hear that Bobby Jindal and Mark Warner are already scheduled to speak in Iowa early next year.

• Oh, goodie.

Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation.