RALEIGH – Yesterday I commented on the latest generic-ballot polling for the 2010 congressional and legislative races. Today, I’ll go into greater detail about this election season’s fascinating set of contests for control of the North Carolina General Assembly.

Call it the Republican Party’s Four Corners offense, plus a few.

The Four Corners in question are the four far-flung regions of the state that feature a disproportionate share of the competitive races for House and Senate. Sprinkle in a few other contests in and around the Triangle, Triad, Fayetteville, and Charlotte and you have pretty much the whole legislative picture this year.

Using a combination of publicly available polling, district ratings from the North Carolina Free Enterprise Foundation and the Civitas Institute, mid-year fundraising totals, and reporting on individual races by Carolina Journal and other media outlets, I’ve created a watch list of 11 Senate races and 25 House races.

These are the contests that will determine control of the General Assembly. My list may be more expansive than others you may hear about or see. That’s because I’ve occasionally been burned in the past by assuming certain races to be out of contention, only to see them flip on Election Night, so now I err on the side of inclusion. My list also includes a few House seats currently held by Republicans, even though most people expect the 2010 cycle to be colored some shade of crimson. No GOP-held Senate seats are on the list this year.

Of the 11 Senate races now in play, Republicans need to win six to achieve a majority in the 50-seat chamber. Of the 25 key races in the 120-seat House, Republicans need to win at least 12 seats – defending three and picking up nine or more from the Dems. Both outcomes are feasible. Neither is guaranteed.

Let’s begin with the Southeastern corner of North Carolina. Start with the most populous city, Wilmington, and then spread the lines out to include the counties of New Hanover, Brunswick, Columbus, Duplin, Pender, Onslow, and Sampson. Within this region, there are three key Senate races and one House race, all open seats now in the Democratic column.

In the 8th Senate District, Democrat David Redwine, an insurance agent and former House member, faces Republican veterinarian Bill Rabon. In the 9th, former UNC-Wilmington Chancellor Jim Leutze faces Republican attorney Thom Goolsby. In the 10th, Democratic nominee Dewey Hudson, currently the district attorney for much of the Senate district, faces Republican Brent Jackson, a farmer and entrepreneur. In the House, the 4th District race pits Democrat Mott Blair, a physician, against Republican farmer Jimmy Dixon.

Up the coast, you’ll find the next corner full of legislative races: a large swath of Northeastern counties where all or parts of two Senate seats and seven House seats are in play.

In the Senate, the two seats feature Democratic incumbents and certainly lean Democratic, but Republicans are targeting both. In the 5th District – comprising parts of Pitt, Greene, and Wayne counties – Democratic educator Don Davis faces Republican Louis Pate, a former House member. It’s a rematch. In the 11th, which encompasses Nash and Edgecombe, incumbent A.B. Swindell, a former lobbyist and Democratic political fixture, faces Republican attorney Buck Newton. It’s gotten nasty.

The six House races run the gamut from four Republican-leaning seats with Democratic incumbents (Alice Graham Underhill vs. Norm Sanderson in the 3rd, Arthur Williams vs. Bill Cook in the 6th, Van Braxton vs. Steve LaRoque in the 10th, and Randy Stewart vs. Jeff Collins in the 25th*) to three Democrat-leaning seats where Republicans see opportunities if they can ride a GOP wave (Bill Owens vs. John Woodard in the 1st, Tim Spear vs. Bob Steinburg in the 2nd, and Marian McLawhorn vs. Stan Larson in the 9th).

Let’s go west for the other two regions. In the Northwestern corner, including Boone and the High Country, the Senate race features a Democratic incumbent, retired minister Steve Goss, running against Republican Dan Soucek in the strongly Republican 45th District. The House race, also in traditionally Republican territory, features incumbent Democrat Cullie Tarleton, a retired broadcaster, defending his 93rd District against Republican Jonathan Jordan, an attorney (and a former employee of mine, so ‘nuff said.)

Finally, the Western mountains and foothills offer the mother lode of legislative contests: two Senate races and as many as seven House seats are in play.

In the 47th Senate District, Democratic incumbent and architect Joe Sam Queen has had a string of competitive races since 2002. This year will be no different. Queen will defend his six-county district against Ralph Hise, a community college administrator and the mayor of Spruce Pine. In the 50th District, covering the eight counties at the western tip of the state, Democrat John Snow, a former district court judge, faces Republican Jim Davis, an orthodontist. In this GOP-trending year, Snow has no choice but to brace himself.

Uh, so to speak.

In the House, Republican Hugh Blackwell is defending the 86th District, which he wrested from longtime Rep. Walter Church two years ago, from the Democratic nominee, who happens to be Church’s son and namesake. In the strongly Republican 88th District, incumbent Democrat and former sheriff Ray Warren is stepping down, clearing the way for former Republican Rep. Mark Hallo to reclaim the seat in a contest with Democrat David Munday.

In the 111th District, Republican attorney and incumbent Tim Moore faces Democrat Mary Accor, a Cleveland county commissioner. In the 112th District, longtime Democratic incumbent Bob England is retiring, leaving a GOP-leaning seat to be fought over by Democrat Jim Proctor, the former mayor of Lake Lure, and Republican Mike Hager, a homebuilder.

In the 116th District, which includes the Republican and swing sections of Buncombe County, there’s a rematch between Democratic incumbent Jane Whilden and Republican Tim Moffitt, a management consultant. Finally, in the 118th and 119th districts, both leaning Democratic, incumbents Ray Rapp and Phil Haire faces challenges from Republicans Sam Edwards and Dodie Allen, respectively. The GOP candidates will likely be underfinanced, but a strong GOP tide could extend all the way up these mountains.

So which districts don’t fit my neat little Four Corners rubric? Several interesting ones in and around some of the state’s major cities.

In Wake County, at least two Democratic House incumbents face strong challenges: attorney Grier Martin in the 34th District and appointed Rep. Chris Heagarty, former head of the NC Center for Voter Education, in the 41st District. Their adversaries are Republicans Steve Henion, a real estate broker, and Tom Murry, an attorney and pharmacist who serves on the Morrisville Town Council.

In the Fayetteville-Sandhills area, there’s a competitive Senate race in a Democratically leaning district (appointed Sen. Margaret Dickson vs. contractor Wesley Meredith in the 19th) plus several House races in Democratic-leaning districts.

In the 22nd District, stretching from Cumberland into Bladen, incumbent Democratic William Brisson faces Republican John Szoka, a mortgage broker. In the 44th District, western Cumberland, appointed Rep. Diane Parfitt faces Republican Johnny Dawkins, an insurance agent and former Fayetteville City Council member. In the 45th District, northern and central Cumberland, Democratic attorney and Rep. Rick Glazier faces Republican Jackie Warner, a school principal and wife of former Rep. Alex Warner, who switched parties to challenge Glazier in 2006. Further west, in the Sandhills District 51 including Lee County and part of Harnett, incumbent Democrat and attorney Jimmy Love faces Republican Mike Stone, a retailer and Mayor Pro Tem of Sanford.

In the Triad, there are two races on my radar right now. One is the Lexington-centered 81st House District, where Democratic House Majority Leader Hugh Holliman is in a tough rematch with Rayne Brown, a Republican social worker who gave him a scare even in the Obama-surge year of 2008. The other is the 24th Senate District, mostly in Alamance County and featuring a rematch between Democratic incumbent Tony Foriest and Republican Rick Gunn, a real estate executive.*

In the Charlotte area, the two races to watch are the 43rd Senate District, where Republican Kathy Harrington is virtually guaranteed to win the Gaston County seat long held by retiring Democrat David Hoyle, and Mecklenburg’s 103rd House District, a rare case of an open Republican seat being actively contested by the Democrats. Democrat Ann Newman, a nursing educator, faces Republican Bill Brawley, who works in real estate.

And in-between, in the 77th House District centered on Salisbury, five-term incumbent Democrat Lorene Coates faces Republican Harry Warren, an HR executive for a Wendy’s franchisee. This is a swing seat, but one that Coates has consistently defended through Republican and Democratic waves.

My Carolina Journal colleagues and I will, naturally, be watching developments in all of these legislative races during the last few weeks of the 2010 cycle. If the Republicans can successfully execute their Four Corners offense, plus a few, they’ll wield more legislative power in Raleigh than they’ve had in more than a century.

Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation.

*Inadvertently left out of the original version of this column.