RALEIGH – Is there a passion gap between Democrats and Republicans?
No, I don’t mean that. Get your head out of the gutter and back where it belongs – by which I mean, since we’re talking politics, somewhere beneath the gutter. There are plenty of reasons to think that, having come off a strong mid-term performance last year, Democrats remain more energized and optimistic about their immediate electoral prospects than does the GOP.
You can see it in public-opinion polls. I’ve heard it in personal conversations with both Democratic and Republican officeholders, consultants, and activists. Hard data confirm the trend. So far this year, the top three Democratic contenders for president have as a group significantly outraised the top three Republicans. An increasing share of both parties’ fundraising is happening on the web, where small-dollar contributions are more efficiently raised, but Democrats are outpacing Republicans there, too. (That’s a change from the recent past, by the way, when the GOP tended to have a larger number of smaller-dollar donors than Democrats did. For years, and somewhat contrary to many preconceived notions, Democrats tended to rely more on a few large donors giving soft money or running independent expenditures. Now, technology has facilitated changes in the revenue mix.)
Within North Carolina, the top two Democratic candidates for governor, Beverly Perdue and Richard Moore, are better known than their Republican counterparts – Bill Graham, Fred Smith, and Bob Orr – and far ahead in fundraising and organization. At the congressional level, I was interested to read in Southern Political Report this week that freshman Democratic Rep. Heath Shuler of North Carolina’s 11th District had a strong $304,000 take in the 2nd Quarter of 2007, and reports nearly half a million dollars in cash on hand. In the only other N.C. congressional district where a competitive race is likely next year, the 8th, Republican Rep. Robin Hayes raised a bit more than Shuler in the 2nd Quarter ($314,000) but has less cash on hand ($375,000).
Of course, Hayes has in the past raised a lot of money for his election and re-election efforts in the district – and has personal money to add, if needed – but it’s worth noting that the Democrat Hayes barely defeated in 2006, Larry Kissell, is already getting significant help from state and national Democrats to assemble the necessary funds for an effective rematch. In the Shuler case, there is as yet no obvious Republican challenger. The longtime incumbent he defeated, Charles Taylor, hasn’t announced his intentions. Western North Carolina Republicans are urging Taylor to declare one way or the other ASAP, so as to coalesce around a standard-bearer early and begin building the organization and funding base they’ll need to reclaim the seat.
There are two reasons, however, why no one should assume that the current Democratic passion gap must persist all the way to November 2008. The first is named Hillary Clinton. I continue to hear from Democratic friends that they worry about the effect of a Clinton (re)nomination on the Republican base in states such as North Carolina. Perhaps they exaggerate a bit – and there’s nothing wrong or rare about politicos fretting over worst-case scenarios – but surely it’s rational to assume great risk whenever any party decides to nominate a candidate that roughly half the electorate already views negatively.
Second, November 2008 is a long way from August 2007. Many months remain for local, state, national, or international events to change the current electoral dynamics. If the election were to be held next week, however, it seems likely that passionate Democratic voters would outnumber their dispirited Republican counterparts at the polls.
Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation.