RALEIGH – In 2008, both Democrats and Republicans held competitive, expensive primaries for governor. The winners, Lt. Gov Bev Perdue and Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory respectively, went on to compete in one of the closest gubernatorial elections in North Carolina history.
Now, with the 2012 election season rapidly approaching, most political observers have been expecting a rematch. But pollsters have been asking likely voters what they think – and the results are interesting, to say the least.
According to the latest statewide survey from Public Policy Polling, a Democratic firm, a rematch wouldn’t be good for Democrats. McCrory would best Gov. Perdue by a 12 point margin – and that’s assuming that the 15 percent of voters currently undecided would break evenly between the two candidates.
In the PPP survey, Perdue’s approval ratings are upside down: 30 percent pro, 48 percent con, 22 percent not sure. McCrory’s favorability ratings are rightside up: 31 percent pro, 22 percent con, 47 percent not sure.
With their incumbent governor in danger and the North Carolina legislature controlled by Republicans for the first time in more than a century, it stands to reason that Democrats might want to select a different nominee in 2012 to ensure continued influence in Raleigh.
The conservative Civitas Institute, which commissions monthly statewide polls, asked Democratic and unaffiliated respondents in its January survey whether they would prefer Perdue or a different Democrat in a gubernatorial primary. About a third said they would support or lean towards Perdue. A similar percentage said they would support or lean towards someone else.
Who might that be? I’ve heard the talk around Raleigh of a potential primary challenge, as have many others, but it’s been hard to imagine how such a scenario might unfold. Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton, former NC House Speaker Dan Blue, State Treasurer Janet Cowell, and former legislator and Senate candidate Cal Cunningham are among the fashions Democratic activists have been trying on for size.
Still, I’m not sure it’s realistic to expect any of them to take after Perdue head-on. The last time there was a serious primary challenge to a governor was in 1980, when former Gov. Bob Scott ran against Gov. Jim Hunt. He got creamed. Given Perdue’s long career in Democratic politics, a primary challenge would be a risky proposition.
A more likely scenario would be for the governor to decide on her own not to seek a second term. People who choose careers in politics necessarily have a lot of self-confidence. Their egos make it hard not to keep running for office. But sometimes, when the prospects for reelection appear dim, they’d rather retire voluntarily than involuntarily.
On the other side, PPP decided to test the widespread assumption that McCrory will be the inevitable GOP nominee. During the 2008 primary, conservative challengers criticized some of McCrory’s policies as mayor, such as supporting a tax increase for the Queen City’s rail-transit system. He won anyway, without a runoff. Would a similar challenge be more successful in 2012, given the advent of Tea Party politics?
In the PPP survey, 53 percent of likely GOP primary voters said McCrory’s views were “about right,” vs. 14 percent who said they were too liberal and seven percent who said they were too conservative. But when asked directly whether they would vote for McCrory or “a more conservative challenger,” 43 percent went for the unnamed conservative, vs. 29 percent for McCrory.
The results show some room to maneuver for a potential primary challenger to McCrory. But as is the case on the Democratic side, I’m having trouble coming up with a realistic scenario for such a challenge. I don’t think any of the mayor’s 2008 opponents are interested in running again. Other rising stars in the North Carolina GOP either find themselves in new positions of influence in the General Assembly, positions they would probably not want to give up just yet, or are local leaders with little statewide name recognition and uncertain fundraising prospects.
In short, polls show that neither Perdue nor McCrory is certain to be renominated. But a rematch still seems likely.
Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation.