A TV talk show host asked of me in a recent interview whether North Carolina has “enough” K-12 teachers. A reasonable question, since I’d just written a rebuttal to a report that claims we have a teacher shortage in this state.
I could have asked in return whether North Carolina has “enough” TV talk show hosts. Both questions would have exhibited the same problem: instead of thinking of the supply of people in a given profession as a flow of decision-makers looking for their best opportunities, the questions treat teachers (and TV hosts) as a set quantity of one fixed type of labor, waiting around for an opportunity to be employed.
This isn’t how the supply of talent works on TV or in the classroom, however.
If labor were more like salt and pepper shakers, we could ask whether there are enough around at a given time. Once produced, salt and pepper shakers are useful in fairly specific ways. They are either going to sit on someone’s table, or await purchase on the store shelf. Not so labor.
People are constantly making decisions about how best, or even whether to use their resources, so supply in a given field can never be a stock concept. And unlike the pepper and salts, people can decide to offer an entirely different set of labor resources and services if they wish. If the situation looks right, they could even switch from TV talk show host to teacher, or vice versa.
If you try to grapple with the supply of teachers as an existing stock, the market for teachers becomes an accounting problem. You simply tally the number of teachers “needed,” and compare it to the number of teachers “on hand.” The two totals either match or they don’t. This is why fewer teachers on hand than needed, or fewer teachers “in the pipeline” than needed at present, get labeled a teacher shortage.
Let’s look at this accounting approach for a moment. We could start by counting the number of people currently employed as teachers in the public schools. To that, we add the number of students currently enrolled in teacher training programs in the state, the “teacher pipeline” or potential stock. Teacher training programs should graduate a certain number of working teachers each year.
If we subtract some expected teacher turnover, that would give us a pretty good idea of how many teachers the state can count on employing each school year – the supply – and whether there are any gaps that will need to be filled beyond that number. Correct?
Nonsense. Even if there were no prospective teachers in the pipeline, and far fewer teachers on hand than needs currently call for, there is no reason to suppose that come next school year North Carolina could not have “enough” or more than “enough” teachers to cover its K-12 education needs.
It is also true, but perhaps less likely, that if North Carolina had more than the projected number of needed teachers already in service or in training, that the state could come up short when the school year starts. There’s a reason for this: teaching isn’t an immutable choice, it’s an ongoing supply decision.
What causes supply in any field? Supply – of teachers, acrobats, TV announcers, gas station operators, etc. – is a decision about the best alternatives available. I, for example, don’t ordinarily think of myself as a supplier of gasoline. But at some price per gallon, depending upon the availability and distance of a refill, I’d sell gas out of my car’s tank.
Under some circumstances I could conceivably decide to pursue a broadcast career, or join a circus, for that matter. I look at opportunities in my current job, as well as alternative careers, when I decide where and whether I will work.
On the teacher problem, if we consider only existing teachers or those in the teacher training pipeline, we miss the important point that 1) people change their career and education choices every day, and 2) there almost certainly are individuals who aren’t even considering teaching at present, but would make the decision to teach under the right circumstances.
“Enough” in the teaching (or any) profession means the right number and quality of job seekers have come forward to fill the opportunities available. Teaching competes for lots of individuals with specialized skills and knowledge, individuals with attractive alternatives available in applied professions like engineering, math, communications, medicine, and other fields.
If talented individuals in these areas never supply themselves as teachers, it tells us that teaching is less attractive, for whatever reason, than the available alternatives.