RALEIGH – The 2010 political primaries are almost here, and millions of North Carolinians are breathless with anticipation to discover the nominees for dozens of competitive federal, state, and local races.

Okay, so perhaps I exaggerate slightly. Are there large numbers of voters following the primaries closely? No. But it’s still likely that a couple million North Carolinians will vote on May 4, judging by the turnout in recent nonpresidential election years. Whatever their level of knowledge about candidates for Congress, legislature, county commission, judge, and school board, these primary voters are about to make some important decisions.

It has become a bit of a cliché to ascribe abiding significance to upcoming election cycles. Is the next election truly the most important in your lifetime? Maybe – until the next one comes along. The truth is, every election matters. Every election either reinforces or overturns recent political trends, giving politicians the power to act in ways that you will either really like or really hate.

Still, I would argue that the 2010 cycle deserves special attention for several reasons:

• It will test the depths of the political reaction to the Obama administration’s efforts to turn America sharply to the Left, towards a European-style welfare state. In other words, is the Tea Party movement for real or for show?

• It will test whether the 2008 surge in voter registration was a unique phenomenon, a response to the historic possibility of electing the nation’s first black president, or the beginnings of a permanent change in American electoral participation. In other words, will all those new voters show up for the midterms?

• It will test whether state Republicans have the talent, resources, and drive necessary to seize a unique opportunity to unseat the Democrats as the governing party of North Carolina. Never before have GOP prospects looked so good so early in an election cycle to win majorities in both houses of the General Assembly. In other words, will they sustain their momentum into November, giving them full control over the 2011 process for drawing legislative and congressional districts?

• It will test whether the cycle will produce a normal or abnormal recovery for the party out of power, in this case the Republicans. In other words, will 2010 resemble, say, 1990 or 1998? Or will it be a political earthquake like 1994 or 2006?

If Democrats do a good job of turning out their base and changing the subject from issues that are killing them (health care) to issues where they have a better shot (financial regulation), perhaps they’ll lose a couple dozen seats in the U.S. House and half a dozen in the U.S. Senate. They will have paid a significant political price for being in power during tough times – but they’ll stay in power. That’s the best-case scenario for them.

But if Republicans do a good job of keeping the focus on health care and the weak employment recovery – reflecting and focusing the public’s ire against bailouts, pork-barrel, debt, and ObamaCare – they could well gain 50+ seats in the House, easily giving themselves control, and approach a majority in the Senate.

My sense right now is that the Republicans are doing the better job. You can see it in the polling numbers, both in fall matchup questions and voter intensity. You can see it in registration, fundraising, and media trends. In the latest North Carolina polls from both the Civitas Institute on the Right and Public Policy Polling on the Left, for example, support for generic Republicans for Congress and the legislature is much higher than normal.

But it’s a long way to November. And the results of the May 4 primary matter. In several competitive races for Congress and legislature, the Republican field is crowded. Several will probably go to a runoff, as seems likely in the Democratic contest for U.S. Senate among Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, former state Sen. Cal Cunningham, and Chapel Hill lawyer Ken Lewis.

If the GOP runoffs get nasty and expensive, Democrats may save some vulnerable seats. In other words, Republicans may well be masters of their own fate here.

Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation.