RALEIGH – Former N.C. House Speaker Dan Blue does have a plan, though it might not be evident from the most recent polling that shows him substantially behind Charlotte businessman Erskine Bowles in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate.

You see, Blue – and Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, to a lesser extent – can reasonably expect to do well with liberals and minorities among the Democratic electorate. These blocs of voters are not evenly distributed across North Carolina. There are certain counties where lots of such votes are readily harvested, and it turns out that these are the very communities this year where turnout is promising to exceed the state average, which many observers predict will be very low (see here: http://www.herald-sun.com/state/6-265524.html).

Up in the Northeast corner of the state, for example, there are a lot of black voters. A competitive primary for the 1st Congressional District is pushing voter interest above the norm, with major get-out-the-vote efforts from three black candidates – Janice Cole in the extreme Northeast counties, Frank Ballance to the west along the Virginia border to Warren, and Christine Fitch southward into Edgecombe and Wilson counties. Blue believes he can benefit from the expected turnout, most of whom are likely to support his candidacy.

There are similar situations in other areas: a tough primary between Sens. Howard Lee and Ellie Kinnaird in and around Chapel Hill, likely to turn out liberals; high-profile sheriff races in minority-rich counties like Robeson, Cumberland, Onslow, and New Hanover; crowded Democratic primaries in congressional districts encompassing parts of Raleigh, Burlington, Greensboro, Fayetteville, and Charlotte with many black voters; and open or competitive legislative seats in and around Pitt and Bladen counties, among others.

So it’s come down to this. Blue and Marshall think they can pull off an upset of Bowles by riding the wave of differential turnout.

And so, of course, a different kind of wave approaches. A so-called subtropic storm Gustav, which may become a full-fledged tropical storm by landfall, will touch coastal North Carolina in the next few hours (see here: http://www.herald-sun.com/state/6-265593.html). As Election Day dawns, good swaths of the very territory where the insurgents need a strong turnout could be covered with heavy rains and gusty winds. Probably won’t affect points inland, like the Triangle or Fayetteville, but the pivotal 1st Congressional District could end up with the political equivalent of inclement weather – only you don’t get rained out in politics. The game gets played, even if the crowd deserts.

Statewide, turnout will likely fall below the historical average of 20 percent in non-presidential-year primaries, and could be closer to the 10 percent range. If similar numbers turn out in these key, and possibly soggy, counties tomorrow, Bowles is the Democratic nominee.