Dear Fantasia Barrino:

Congratulations on your continued success on “American Idol” this year. My family and I are among your biggest fans back in your home state of North Carolina. You are a natural performer with a unique voice and a command of pacing and dynamics not typical for someone so young. We’ll be watching to see how things develop over the last two weeks of the 2004 season, but whatever happens you should feel pride in your accomplishments and blessed at having been presented such a wonderful opportunity.

I have a couple of other things on my mind, and I hope you don’t mind if I share them with you. First of all, there’s The Controversy. Several weeks ago, LaToya London, Jennifer Hudson, and you came in as the bottom-three vote-getters in the competition. Hudson was eliminated. Then last week, you and London were again the bottom-ranked, and she found herself singing her final song — an electrifying rendition of a Broadway hit made famous by Barbra Streisand.

Some have been suggesting that these unfortunate outcomes were the result of a deep-seated racism among the viewing public. Others have offered the conspiracy theory that the Fox television network has been manipulating the vote totals to manufacture drama and boost the show’s ratings. You seem to have a good head on your shoulders, so I’m guessing that you aren’t falling for these cynical explanations, but the issue is worth some discussion because it’s not really about just a television show. “American Idol” has become a cultural force in our country, generating the kind of “water-cooler talk” that used to derive from other shared experiences. As a result, it matters whether Americans respond to what they see by indulging dark conspiracies or grievances rather than recognizing that reality is messy and unpredictable. Life often throws us inexplicable and unfortunate curve balls. It’s our job to know when to watch them fly by and when to swing.

There are far more likely, and benign, explanations for what has happened. As Broadcasting & Cable reports, there are serious flaws with the way Fox has set up its voting system. Many people, trying to vote for many different performers, find themselves unable to do so because of jam-packed local phone lines and unscrupulous power-dialers. Because the program isn’t being aired at the same local time in every part of the country, there are probably differences in audience size and ability to break through the logjams.

Also, not everyone feels equally motivated to vote based just on the quality of the performances. I suspect that a key reason why Jasmine Trias may have gotten more votes than you and London did is because people felt sorry for her. Her performance last Tuesday was mediocre at best, the judges said so, and she couldn’t help but tear up. Similarly rough treatment of John Stevens (not that his performances didn’t deserve it) probably kept him in the competition for weeks longer because of a sympathy vote. This shouldn’t be viewed as nefarious or outrageous. It’s just a natural part of the human experience.

Speaking of, another controversy has developed regarding you as a teenage mother with an out-of-wedlock child. Can you really be an American Idol? The answer is yes. As I understand the story, you acknowledge that you made a mistake, that you failed to apply the lessons that your parents and your religious upbringing had imparted to you. Of course, no child is a mistake, and the love that you and your family so obviously bestow on Zion comes across to me and millions of other Americans not as dismissive of responsible behavior and traditional values but as life-affirming and hopeful. Perhaps one of the messages young people will take away from your new-found notoriety is that certain choices do make life much more difficult. Indeed, I’d recommend that as your career unfolds you help to encourage young people not to make the same mistake, because the vast majority of unwed mothers will not find themselves one day getting a record contract and touring the country as you are about to do.

One of the judges told you that your rendition of Gershwin’s “Summertime” was the greatest performance by anyone in the history of “Idol.” That’s true. But for you, it is still springtime. Plenty of growth, the blazing heat of the spotlight, and, yes, some stormy weather lie ahead. I can tell you’re not one to let cynicism or past mistakes stand in your way. Good for you.

Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation and publisher of Carolina Journal.