RALEIGH — Republican Cass Ballenger, the longtime Representative from North Carolina’s 10th Congressional District and the source of recent controversial utterances, will be a guest Tuesday morning on Hal Rowes’ “First Talk” radio program on Hickory’s WHKY-AM. If the widespread speculation is correct and Ballenger takes the opportunity to announce his retirement from the U.S. House in 2004 after 18 years, North Carolina Republicans will face another sprawling, contentious, and potentially divisive primary in a political year that is shaping up to be a momentous one.
There’s already a donnybrook underway in the 5th District, where Republican Rep. Richard Burr is stepping down to run for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by John Edwards. The number of GOP candidates in this friendly district — which includes Winston-Salem, several Piedmont counties, and the High Country of the northwestern mountains — may now actually exceed the cast list of It’s a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World. (Here’s a fun party game for your next gathering of politico-cinema geeks: match the Republican candidates with the film’s guest stars! I’ll get you started: Sen. Virginia Foxx is Ethel “Everything’s Coming Up Roses” Merman and Winston-Salem Alderman Vernon Robinson is Jonathan Winters.)
Now, if Ballenger opens up another GOP-leaning seat to the south and west, expect a similarly lengthy line of Republicans to form. Such opportunities don’t come around very often in the less competitive, sliced-and-diced arena of congressional politics. Already, businessman and former Ballenger donor George Moretz has announced that, whether the former retires or not, he’s running for the Republican nomination. State Sen. Austin Allran is another likely candidate. Other possible aspirants include former NC House minority leader Johnathan Rhyne and Labor Commissioner Cherie Berry (who represented part of the district in the NC House for man years). Also, if the current set of legislative districts survive legal challenge — not that I think they will — then one of the two incumbent Republican state senators forced into the same district, Jim Forrester or R.B. Sloan, could be tempted to join the fray.
I’ve just scratched the surface here. Many a current and former legislator, county commission, mayor, and political activist in this thickly Republican and economically challenged region will consider the idea of running, at least trying the expensive item on for size before returning it reluctantly to the shelf.
A couple of other considerations are worth repeating at this point. First, the prospect of another competitive GOP primary in a Republican-leaning region has implications for statewide races, particularly the competitive contest for the gubernatorial nomination. Republican Richard Vinroot is the best-known candidate in the field right now, though Bill Cobey and Patrick Ballantine, among others, will begin to make up ground in the coming months. But if anything, Vinroot’s base of support lies precisely in those western and foothills counties where Republican turnout is likely to be higher than average in the 2004 primaries because of the competitive congressional races. Basically, GOP primaries in the 5th and 10th district are good news for Vinroot, and perhaps moderately good news for Cobey as a former statewide party chair. Ballantine’s support may extend into the region, too, but it starts elsewhere.
This dynamic may take on special significance if there is a Republican runoff for governor and for one or both of the open congressional seats, a scenario I would rate as probable. In a low-turnout runoff statewide, a gubernatorial candidate’s Republican support within the 5th and 10th could prove decisive.
Second, the possibility that protracted litigation over legislative redistricting will delay the May 2004 primary until later in the year may affect the shape of the 10th District race. Some candidates now in the General Assembly or aspiring to be may hold off on pulling the trigger for a congressional bid, giving others an early edge. Plus, the better-financed candidates in both the 5th and 10th districts will gain an advantage from a lengthened primary campaign.
So there will be many political practitioners and junkies, Republicans and Democrats, waiting intently to see what Ballenger will say in his Tuesday morning radio interview.
Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation and publisher of Carolina Journal.