RALEIGH — I’m heading up to Washington Monday to make a speech, and have been somewhat pressed for time this weekend, so pardon me if I appear to beat a dead horse for a little while today.

Don’t panic. It’s not dead, and it’s not a horse. It’s John Kerry — so I’ll be beating a somewhat-wounded jackass.

By now, you know that he compared Saddam Hussein and George W. Bush, obliquely, by calling for “regime chance” in both circumstances. I’ve already commented that Kerry’s poor choice of words demonstrated a lack of the moral seriousness that a presidential candidate should exude. Over the weekend, I’ve heard various versions of my critique, some tougher and some easier on the senator than mine. A Boston Globe column by Thomas Oliphant, who is a political liberal and booster of Kerry’s, should suffice as a strong example of the latter.

Here are some reality checks to keep in mind, however. First, Edwards is still far behind in the polls in the first two Democratic contest states of Iowa and New Hampshire. Second, an expected win in the next state, South Carolina, will likely be written off as a favorite son outcome (Edwards is a Palmetto State native and as a North Carolina senator is expected to do well in a neighboring state where the Charlotte, Asheville, and Wilmington media pipe a steady stream of political coverage to SC voters).

On the other hand, the rapid progress of Operation Iraqi Freedom during the past 72 hours has only further underlined my point about the war and its impact on the race. Edwards reiterated his support for the president’s policy at a speech in Asheville on Saturday. His resolute support (for the war, not for the president or his diplomacy) contrasts sharply with Kerry’s flip-flopping and the left kookery of Howard Dean and Al Sharpton.

Please, please don’t write Edwards off, whatever you think of him as a leader, a senator, a lawyer, or a Johnny-come-lately. Much stranger things have happened in politics than the rise of a relatively unknown candidate to the top tier of a presidential field. I still don’t think John Edwards is most likely to end up at the top of the ticket. I still see Veep in his future, if anything. But given the events of the past few weeks, and depending on the events of the next few months in Iraq and elsewhere, Democrats may found themselves with few salable alternatives — and willing to take a chance on a relative unknown.

I see you, Kerry. Stop trying to trot away. The political pummeling isn’t over yet.

Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation.