RALEIGH — North Carolina ought to be an inhospitable place for incumbents to seeking re-election in 2004. We’ve seen job losses, budget deficits, tax increases, crumbling infrastructure, political scandals, snakes, locusts, rivers running red with blood — you get the picture. Incumbent Democratic Gov. Mike Easley, Democratic Senate leader Marc Basnight and his team, Democratic House Speaker Jim Black and his team (including co-Speaker Richard Morgan), and other political leaders would seem to have ample reason to worry.
But before North Carolina Republicans get too worked up over their prospects, they need to remember that many voters associate the current condition of the state with their own political leadership, starting at the top with President George W. Bush. Although the past three years have been full of dramatic changes and surprising political twists of fate, I don’t think that the fundamental political balance in the country has significantly changed. We are still a closely divided polity, though perhaps not a bitterly divided polity. There is a core of voters who lean Democratic, a similarly sized core of voters who lean Republican, and several diferent groups of swing voters who will opt one way or the other depending on the issues at the forefront of their minds when they vote.
The Republican strategists and activists I talk to across the state, including those working with major statewide candidates such as Richard Burr for U.S. Senate or one of the five GOP candidates for governor, admit candidly that their favorites face serious challenges competing in a state where the political money still flows primarily to Democrats, where there are still many voters who are either fiscal or social conservatives but who remain Democrats and willing to vote for their historical ties in races below president, and where the news media retains at least a modest pro-Democratic, pro-government tilt.
Even with a set of useful and compelling issues, even with good candidates, even with sufficient money to be competitive, Republicans still believe that their fortunes are tied to the national ticket. In 2000, a last-minute shift in momentum to the Al Gore-Joe Lieberman ticket — perhaps related to revelations about Bush’s alcoholic past — had an impact in North Carolina, where GOP gubernatorial nominee Richard Vinroot faded in the last few days of the campaign and Easley surged to victory. A similar scenario is playing out in many Republican partisans’ minds right now. Let’s just say it doesn’t leave them feeling giddy.
Some argue that Bush really needs to win 60 percent of the vote in the presidential race in North Carolina to signify enough of a strong Republican turnout to propel its candidates to victory for governor, Senate, Council of State seats, and other offices. Others wouldn’t peg the threshold quite that high.
Whatever their degree of confidence, it can’t be anything but good news to North Carolina Republicans to see Bush’s political stature and approval ratings begin to recover, as they evidently are. A new poll out from CBS News found 53 percent of American voters expressing confidence in Bush’s handling of foreign affairs, up from 45 percent in September. In a generic match-up question, Bush now polls about 12 points higher than an unnamed Democrat, while just a month ago it was a tie. Similarly, a Gallup poll out a few days ago also showed an improvement in the president’s approval ratings, particularly on foreign policy.
This is one reason why all the early prognostications you hear about Burr vs. Erskine Bowles or Easley vs. Vinroot/Cobey/Ballantine/Little/Shubert/Barrett is worth so little. These races will certain involve a lot of specific issues, candidate positions, fundraising successes, gaffes, luck, and the like. But in a competitive state such as North Carolina, they will also turn on the overall sense of momentum that one party or the other will have by Election Day.
Tar Heel Republicans aren’t hoping for Bush to win here. They are hoping, and praying, that he will win big.
Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation and publisher of Carolina Journal.