RALEIGH — When the North Carolina Employment Security Commission released employment statistics for June, Democratic Party leaders and left-leaning pundits were quick to use ESC’s press release to blame Republican budget cuts for a monthly decline of 7,600 state government jobs, even though the new budget didn’t take effect until July.

ESC’s press release read as follows:

“North Carolina’s unemployment rate was at 9.9 percent in June. Government jobs decreased by 10,200 in June, including 7,600 in state government. This includes jobs lost in community colleges and universities. In comparison to the same time last year, there has been an increase in [unemployment] claims in state and local government. This is largely due to an increase in claims in both local and state education.”

But in fact, the 7,600 figure was an estimate, adjusted for variations in employment in a host of job classifications that occur normally at the same time every year (“seasonally adjusted”). The actual estimate suggests a loss from May to June of about 40,000 government jobs and a gain of about 20,000 private-sector jobs. Public university, community college, and local education jobs occupied by employees on summer break are counted as jobs that were lost, even if those employees return later that month, at the end of the summer, or some other time.

Did 7,600 actual people in state government lose their jobs in June? No one knows for sure. Did the 2011-12 state budget cause any government job losses in June? Hardly, because it did not take effect until July 1. It’s just as plausible to argue that the budget Gov. Bev Perdue had administered over the past two years caused those job losses.

So what is really going on here?

The numbers are estimates, subject to numerous quirky variables and often are revised — sometimes significantly — well after some commentators have delivered their definitive analysis.

How do I know? Prior to joining the John Locke Foundation in 1995, I served as deputy director of the ESC’s Labor Market Information Division. I held that job for five years and became intimately familiar with the details behind the employment statistics that ESC released every month. My division was a contract numbers gatherer for the BLS, the nation’s official employment statistics agency.

In my role at ESC, I often responded to inquiries about the numbers from reporters, researchers, and state officials. One of the key insights I shared with those folks was that they should not be too quick to draw conclusions from monthly changes.

Good luck with that. When ESC released the June numbers on July 22, the left-leaning N.C. Budget and Tax Center was quick to react to the state’s (estimated) rise in the unemployment rate from 9.7 percent to 9.9 percent.

“We draw a direct line between this rise in unemployment and the loss of public-sector jobs,” said the center’s director, Alexandra Forter Sirota. “As state job losses continue to mount, we will likely see more pronounced economic effects throughout North Carolina,” she added in her organization’s press release. Chris Fitzsimon of NC Policy Watch made similar remarks.

Democratic Party leaders agreed with this “direct line” to state budget cuts. “The responsibility for this jump in unemployment rates rests squarely on the shoulders of the Republicans and their budget,” state Senate Democratic leader Martin Nesbitt told the News & Observer. “The Republican budget led to the direct firing of 7,600 people in June,” said House Democratic leader Joe Hackney to the N&O.

Remember: The ESC’s estimates were made before the new budget became law. The commentators were wrong.

ESC spokesman Larry Parker told me that in the education services category, ESC had 1,652 unemployment insurance claims last June compare to 2,089 this June. So what does this mean? He doesn’t know for sure, and neither do I.

“I think while we did see some added loss in the state government sections compared to last year, education, state government, and local government changes will be best analyzed over the next few months,” Parker said.

I agree with Parker because I know the estimates are not reliable enough to draw conclusions from one month to the next.

Of course, the fact that these jobs reports are no more than educated guesses — and in the case of the seasonally adjusted reports, a guess on top of a guess — has not prevented commentators who don’t understand the reports from making statements they cannot support. Be wary of their pronouncements.

Don Carrington is executive editor of Carolina Journal.