RALEIGH – Jim Black wasn’t good to Dan Blue.
No, I’m not talking about in 1999, when a recaptured Democratic majority in the House led to the election of Black over Blue for speaker – by one vote. And I don’t mean more recently, when the embattled speaker lashed out at Blue’s announced candidacy to replace him and his corrupt governance of the chamber.
What I mean is that by later bailing out on his attempt at reelection to the speakership, Black deprived Blue of his best selling point to reluctant House moderates and business lobbyists: that he was the right person to mobilize and unify the Democratic caucus against the potentially disastrous prospect of Black being reelected and then indicted. Once Black – or perhaps his lawyers – recognized the reality of the situation and made the inevitable decision, Blue’s path to the speakership added a few more twists and turns. He’s probably still the frontrunner, with the largest number of current votes and the likely recipient of Majority Leader Joe Hackney’s faction of liberals and Triangle-area lawmakers should Hackney pack it in. But it’s not a foregone conclusion.
Winston-Salem Journal columnist Paul O’Connor and Associated Press correspondent Gary Robertson each laid out the various scenarios for what might happen over the next few weeks. They include one of three centrist possibilities – Reps. Jim Crawford, Joe Tolson, or Drew Saunders – elected either because they joined forces and won out within the Democratic caucus, or because they went to Rep. Skip Stam of Raleigh, the new House minority leader, and secured the support of most or all of the House Republicans. They also include Blue making a deal with Republicans himself, as he did in 1999.
My own view is that worries within big-business circles that Blue (or Hackney, for that matter) would prove to be dangerously left-wing are overblown. Any intelligent politician can see that the Democratic majority in the General Assembly did not expand in 2006 because North Carolina voters suddenly realized they wanted the legislature to enact big tax increases, impose a costly new regulatory burden, or abolish capital punishment. Swing voters swung Democratic, largely to express disaffection with the campaign in Iraq and campaign shenanigans in the Republican Congress. In North Carolina, Democrats were able to outmaneuver Republicans and pick up seats in both legislative chambers partly because they attracted organizational and financial support from business groups. No Democratic speaker is likely to come into office and start splitting up a winning coalition.
At least not outside of the pleasantly fanciful dreams of imaginative (and sleepy) Republicans.
What a smart Democratic speaker of the N.C. House will do right off the bat is begin fashioning new legislation to reform the legislative process and distinguish clearly his leadership style with that of his predecessor. The N.C. Coalition for Lobbying and Government Reform, of which I am a member, has laid out a solid foundation for such a reform package. If Dan Blue does make it back into the speakership, he won’t need much prodding or education to move the bill. He’s endorsed much of the list already, on N.C. Spin, and everyone knows that’s as good as gospel when it comes to matters political in the Tar Heel State. . .
Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation.