RALEIGH – It’s not too early to gauge the possible competitiveness of Sen. Richard Burr’s reelection bid next year.

You know why? Because the past three decades of North Carolina political history demonstrate that virtually all U.S. Senate races here are highly competitive. Jesse Helms never won in a landslide. His successor, Elizabeth Dole, won a competitive race against Erskine Bowles and lost a competitive race against Kay Hagan. And after Sam Ervin relinquished the state’s other Senate seat in 1980, it has gone back and forth between the two parties every six years.

Even if history didn’t instruct us to assume that every North Carolina Senate race will be a doozey, the available evidence points to an expensive and hard-fought contest in 2010. First-term Sen. Burr is hardly unpopular, and has strong support in the Triad district he represented in the U.S. House for a decade. But statewide polls from the Civitas Institute, Public Policy Polling, and Rasmussen Reports all show, albeit to varying degrees, that Burr has yet to establish a firm statewide base of support.

Now, being vulnerable to challenge doesn’t guarantee a competitive race. Democrats still have to nominate a candidate who can raise sufficient funds, perform well in public and media appearances, excite the grassroots in a mid-term election cycle, and distinguish himself or herself from what may end up being an anti-Democratic mood in the 2010 electorate.

The aforementioned PPP and Rasmussen polls show Burr leading the Democrats who’ve so far publicly expressed interest in the race, including Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, U.S. Rep Bob Etheridge, former Lt. Gov. Dennis Wicker, former state Sen. Cal Cunningham, and Durham lawyer and activist Ken Lewis. But Burr remains below the 50 percent mark, indicating that as one or more of the Democrats start spending money and gaining name recognition, Burr could end up with a real race on his hands.

Obviously, the senator has a lot of work to do in the next few months. He must reintroduce himself to an electorate that has changed quite a bit since 2004. He must accumulate the resources, both in funds and personnel, that he’ll need to compete in a toss-up state. And he must define a persuasive, vote-moving message on a few key issues.

But I think that Richard Burr’s political fortunes will be determined to a large degree by events mostly or entirely out of his control. If North Carolina and the rest of the country continue to move away from President Obama and the Democratic Congress on the emotional issue of health care, for example, a traditional Democrat will have a very hard time defeating Burr next year. The GOP base will be energized, the Democratic base demoralized, and independents either leaning against Ds or against turning out. On the other hand, if the president recovers his political footing – most leaders who stumble early do so, eventually – then a Democratic challenger who embraces centrism and eschews the current, unpopular leadership in Congress may still have a shot.

In 2006 and 2008, solid Republican candidates who did all the right things still got creamed because of strong public sentiment against George W. Bush, corruption, and poor GOP leadership in Washington. In 2010, something similar could happen to a solid Democratic candidate who does all the right things. That’s why, in the end, many up-and-coming Dems may choose to wait for a better opportunity to aim high.

Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation