RALEIGH – Will 2006 be to Democrats what 1994 was to Republicans?

Certainly there are many Democrats who hope so and many political commentators who believe so. Some see fractures and incompetence within the Republican Party and the conservative movement – which they incorrectly conflate – and argue that change is in the air. Others blame the GOP’s predicament on poor communication and party strategy and think Democrats can prevail by going back to the Clinton model.

I think the entire discussion is premature. There are plenty of reasons to expect a good year for Democrats in 2006. If you believe in fate, or at least in cycles and waves, then the sixth year of any presidential administration should be bad for the president’s party at the polls. President Bush is at his lowest ebb in public support, though not yet as low as most presidents get at some point in their terms. Voters are no longer sure that America will prevail in Iraq. Conservatives are angry about federal spending and the Miers nomination, perhaps angry enough not to give or turn out in 2006. If gas prices remain near $3 a gallon, that one painful fact alone will sting voters as they head to the polls.

But there are also plenty of reasons to expect these anti-Republican factors to dissipate significantly by this time next year. A positive referendum on an Iraqi constitution and a subsequent round of national elections could further strengthen the movements towards democracy and decency in the country, with continuing regional ramifications. Harriet Miers will either be confirmed or withdrawn, and thus will no longer be the central topic of political conversation. And I seriously doubt that gas prices will remain at their current level, given the reaction already underway in the areas of oil exploration and refining capacity.

There’s also the problem of mistaking the topography of 2006 for that of 1994. There are important differences. The congressional maps leave Democrats with relatively few truly competitive seats in the U.S. House. As for the Senate, the luck of the draw gives Democrats with some pick-up prospects but probably not enough to take the chamber. As for governorships, if current trends continue the Republicans will actually have a net gain of one this year, in Virginia. Several GOP governors are endangered or term-limited next year, but even in those cases a Democratic victory is not preordained – in Ohio, for example, a disastrous gubernatorial term by Republican Bob Taft could well end in 2006 with the election of a far more promising, and conservative, Republican in Ken Blackwell.

North Carolina is a good example of the problem of translating a generalized sense of GOP malaise into real Democratic gains. The 8th District of Robin Hayes will be competitive, again, and Democrats think they might have a shot at longtime Rep. Charlie Taylor in the 11th, though I tend to doubt it. A revolutionary year for the Dems? It’s way too early to call it that way.

But Republicans would be foolish to ignore the risk.

Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation.