RALEIGH — The Greensboro News & Record observed Sunday that even though it’s August in North Carolina, and many folks are either vacationing or getting ready for the start of school, the political season is already in full swing in North Carolina.
There’s a lot of activity, but in essence we are talking about ripples on the political pond emanating from a single event: the decision by Sen. John Edwards to seek the Democratic presidential nomination.
First off, there is the Edwards campaign itself. North Carolina hasn’t generated a serious, ongoing candidacy for president in well over a century (I’m thinking of Leonidas Polk, who might well have been the People’s Party candidate in 1892 if he hadn’t died). And no one has ever been elected to the presidency directly from our state (though Andrew Jackson, James K. Polk, and Andrew Johnson were Carolinians who made it to Washington through the traditional Tennesssee detour).
Whatever your party or view of Edwards, there is something of a political spectacle here. No point in denying it.
At the same time, though, the Edwards candidacy has opened up a number of other political contests. On the Democratic side, 2002 nominee Erskine Bowles and his main opponent, former House Speaker Dan Blue, are preparing for a rematch should Edwards decide to go for broke. Others may get in, too, if the decision comes soon (I’m told it probably won’t).
On the Republican side, Rep. Richard Burr is the shoo-in favorite for his party’s nomination and is relishing the opportunity to prepare for 2004 while Edwards gallivants around the country and the frustrated Bowles and Blue stay home and wait up late for the wayward senator to come in — or at least make a phone call.
Burr’s departure from the Republican-leaning 5th Congressional District is stirring up the most dust of all right now. It’s not every day that a congressional seat pops open, and what you are seeing in Winston-Salem and across Northwestern North Carolina is the political equivalent of nature abhoring a vacuum. At least eight GOP candidates are in the race, including current and former state legislators, local office-holders, and business owners. Those on the ground in the district tell me that while there are plausible scenarios for several of the candidates to win, no one really has a clear sense yet of how the race is going to shake out. A GOP run-off seems likely, as the frontrunner would have to get to 40 percent of the vote in a crowded field to forestall it. It would seem that any candidate from Forsyth would have an advantage in such a run-off, since it contains about a quarter of the electorate of the district, but appearances can be deceiving. A low-turnout affair could generate a surprise result.
By the way, the lack of competition in most U.S. House races has led some to observe a switcheroo in the two chambers of Congress. Originally, the Founders expected the district-based House to reflect popular sentiment and the Senate, elected by state legislatures to longer terms, to reflect the wisdom of experience and the interests of state elites. Today, the opposite is true. State legislatures exercise significant influence over the election of representatives to the U.S. House by gerrymanderng their districts. Individual members can’t be selected this way, but partisan control can often be engineered. On the other hand, U.S. Senate seats are very competitive, with Republicans gaining ground in the traditionally Democratic South and Democrats (until recently, and probably again in a few years) making inroads in more GOP-leaning areas such as the Midwest. These trends leave the Senate as the institution that is most likely to swing back and forth between the two parties, reflecting changing issues and the ebb and flow of party fortunes.
Back to North Carolina for a moment. With competitive elections for mayor in Charlotte, Raleigh, and several other cities, the fall promises to offer a lot of interest and excitement. We’ll do our best here at Carolina Journal Online to keep you up to speed on the latest events, arguments, and issue discussions in state and local politics in North Carolina this year. You can help us do that by passing along interesting tidbits, information on competitive local races we may not be aware of, and comments on how we’re doing.
And as those two ubiquitous wine-cooler pitchmen used to mumble, thank you for your support.
Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation and publisher of Carolina Journal.