RALEIGH — Sen. John Edwards has drawn a third strong challenger for his place on the Democratic national ticket in 2004.
No, not that one. Edwards isn’t really running for president. I mean, he’d welcome the political implosion of John Kerry, Joe Lieberman, and Dick Gerphardt. And he’d probably love a clear shot at Howard Dean (hey, join the club). But that’s not the most likely political scenario for our own “senior” senator. He’s really running for vice president to one of the main candidates, setting himself up for a presidential run in 2008 or 2012.
What does Edwards have to offer? He’s a fresh face. He’s a Southerner. He’s a good speaker (but not a good interview). He has a natural in with core Democratic donors — trial attorneys.
Unfortunately for Edwards, his way to the ticket is blocked by at least three other individuals. First, there’s Sen. Bob Graham of Florida. Of Florida. Graham is an oddball and the opposite of a fresh face. On the Iraq issue, which is the increasingly dovish Democrats’ major vulnerability in 2004, he sounds like a raving lunatic (hey, join the club). But he’s from Florida. That’s Florida.
The second candidate isn’t official yet, but he’s been tiptoeing around the campaign for months. Gen. Wesley Clark headed up the NATO war effort in Serbia and would thus bring some military heft and credibility to any ticket that lacks Kerry. He’s also a Southerner, from Arkansas. While there are reports of a “Draft Clark” presidential effort, my suspicion is that it is too late for a bonafide presidential candidate to enter the race. I think he’s hoping that Lieberman or Gephardt will call him next summer to pop the question.
And now there is talk of a third candidate, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson. He was a longtime Democratic congressman who served as Bill Clinton’s Ambassador to the United Nations and his Secretary of Energy. One reason for the Richardson boomlet is the fear among some Democrats that Hispanic voters may be detaching themselves from the party’s moorings and floating around for any old party, even a Grand Old one, to pull them in. Richardson has the potential not only to tie down New Mexico, which almost went for Bush in 2004, but also to help attract fellow Hispanics to the ticket in key battleground states.
I still think that Edwards can win out over these challengers to the Veep slot, but he’ll have to work hard over the next few months to solidify his position. First, he has to knock Graham out of the “Southern Exposure” race. Personally, I don’t think this will be as hard as some think. Graham won’t sell well outside of Florida, and I believe that if Democrats are counting on Florida to win the 2004 race then they have already lost. They need to win the state, mind you, but they need to win elsewhere in the South or West, too.
On Clark, the risk to a Democratic presidential nominee is being overshadowed. It’s not that the general is some Ike/Colin Powell figure. But given the field, he’s interesting. Plus, Kerry doesn’t want or need him on the ticket, and Dean couldn’t possibly accept him given the former Vermont governors’ turn to the wacky Left. As far as Edwards is concerned, he can do little to blunt a Clark boomlet. He should stick to his supportive stance on the war and leave it at that.
Richardson is another story. I think that the way Democrats think about politics, the rationale for Richardson will be compelling to many of them. Edwards will need to demonstrate his political value to the eventual ticket by 1) continuing to post strong fundraising numbers, 2) attracting impressive endorsements from minority leaders, 3) making impressive appearances before Democratic interest-group crowds, and 4) boosting his poll numbers in Southern and, especially, Western states such as New Mexico, Arizona, and Colorado.
Finally, all bets are off with regard to these Veep speculations if, for whatever reason, Hillary Rodham Clinton starts to enter the picture — or, for whatever reason, Dick Cheney starts to leave the picture.
Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation and publisher of Carolina Journal.