RALEIGH – During much of 2005, the political fortunes of Republicans were on the ebb while the political aspirations of Democrats were on the rise. In North Carolina, this translated into escalating expectations about which of the state’s 13 congressional districts might feature serious competition in the 2006 election cycle.
My sense is that while the national polling looks only a little better for the GOP than it did a few months ago, Democratic confidence about major electoral gains this year seems to have slackened a bit. Partly, this reflects reality creeping in where fantasy had (briefly) reigned. For example, there was a serious effort underway in Winston-Salem to talk Democratic Mayor Allen Joines into challenging freshman Rep. Virginia Foxx in the 5th Congressional District. With a solidly moderate record and access to financial resources in the district’s major city – where it still galls some civic leaders to have their member of Congress hail from the mountains – Joines appeared to be an ideal candidate if Democrats were to have a chance of wresting control of this district back from Republicans after a decade.
But reality intruded. Democrats were not going to take back control of the 5th, now a solidly Republican district. Presidential approval ratings in the 40s weren’t going to do it. A generic-ballot advantage of 7 to 11 percentage points for the national Democrats wasn’t going to do it. Competitive fundraising wasn’t going to do it. It was impossible.
Joines figured that out and bowed out officially earlier this month. Other Democrats are talking about the race now, but they are positioning themselves to win notoriety through a nomination, not to beat Foxx in the fall.
Meanwhile, in the 11th District out in the western mountains, longtime incumbent Rep. Charles Taylor drew one of the most talked-about Democratic challengers in the nation last year, former University of Tennessee quarterback Heath Shuler. I’ve seen him mentioned in The Washington Post, Business Week, and other national media as virtually the prototype of a new kind of Democratic challenger for Congress: young, moderate-to-conservative on social issues, and hailing from a virile background such as sports or the military to counteract what Democrats perceive as a stylistic disadvantage their candidates have vs. Republicans.
I’m not seeing as much of that buzz anymore. In a recent edition of Southern Political Report, a newsletter that has substantial readership across the region, only the 5th District and the truly competitive 8th District of Rep. Robin Hayes were mentioned as spotlighted races. Shuler seems to have gotten cash or financial commitments from many donors around the country, but that doesn’t mean he’s got real momentum within the counties that make up the 11th – again, like the 5th, sprawling across a region that has been moving Republican for a long time.
As for the 8th, sure, Hayes has a real race on his hands. Another one of those new-fangled Democratic candidates, military veteran Tim Dunn of Fayetteville, is the most talked-about nominee. The campaign will be spirited and expensive. And, yes, I predict it will get a lot of attention – because, contrary to the original flights of fancy, it will be the only truly competitive congressional race in North Carolina.
Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation.