RALEIGH – Ready for a presidential primary season that ends on Feb. 5, 2008? Ready or not, that may be precisely what we get.
The biggest prize, California, is about to move its primary back from June to Feb. 5. Illinois, New Jersey, Florida and Texas are considering the same tactic. Here in North Carolina, Sen. Andrew Brock (R-Davie) is pushing for the Feb. 5 date for our own primary. Previously, Alabama and other states with traditionally later primaries had already made the move to Feb. 5. What we could end up with is not just a Super Tuesday, but a Justice League Tuesday (it’s a comic-book reference, do the math) that effectively ends the nomination fights and begins the general-election campaign just a few days after Groundhog Day.
Talk about a long winter.
Some months ago, I wrote about changes in the Democratic primary schedule for 2008 that appears to bolster the chances of a John Edwards (or, it seems, Barack Obama) upset of putative frontrunner Hillary Clinton. The upset scenario involves beating Clinton in Iowa (something that just became a little easier with former Gov. Tim Vilsack pulling out quickly) and the subsequent Nevada caucuses, then ceding New Hampshire to Clinton and using South Carolina to strike a crippling blow. But if virtually all the biggest prizes move their contests to Feb. 5, Clinton can plausibly dismiss early losses in small states with the promise of a upcoming sweep of delegate-rich states, where her advantages in name recognition, national media, and fundraising will pay huge dividends.
My guess is that many thoughtful Democrats are nervous about this. They see that Hillary Clinton is a problematic standard-bearer for 2008. The passionately anti-war faction of the primary electorate remains deeply dissatisfied with her original vote and her unwillingness to repudiate it explicitly, as Edwards has. On the other hand, Clinton’s high negatives and left-wing reputation among swing voters (deserved or not) would give her little room to maneuver in the general election, given that there aren’t that many voters who don’t already have a strong opinion of her one way or the other.
On this issue, the early polling offers some intriguing hints. While Clinton’s lead among Democratic primary voters is solid, general election questions frequently have her tied or trailing the leading Republican candidates, Rudy Giuliani and John McCain. Given continue public disapproval of President Bush and the GOP in general, this isn’t a good sign. Interestingly, in a recent poll by Scott Rasmussen’s firm, Giuliani led solidly in a hypothetical match-up against Clinton by 52-43 but managed only an insignificant two-point edge over Edwards, 46-44.
Separate from the effects on Democratic politics, I think that the trend towards a front-loaded primary calendar is a horrible idea. The Iowa/New Hampshire duopoly deserved to be broken up, no doubt, but a far better approach would have been some version of a rotating regional primary system. Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia has argued for holding four separate regional primaries in April, May, June, and July. In year, the South might go first, East second, Midwest third, West four. Four years later, the order would change, by lot. This would preserve the ability of candidates other than well-funded frontrunners to mount credible campaigns by focusing campaign resources and organization on at least some mid-sized states, rather than having to buy all the major media markets at the same time. It would also build in enough time for a frontrunner to stumble, or for other events to influence voter preferences rather than taking the public’s political temperature all at one time.
Congressional leaders and state governors don’t want to take the leader on primary reform for fear that they’ll turn off potential primary voters in the current early states should they decide to run for president themselves some day. And so here we are, careening towards an electoral demolition derby.
Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation.