RALEIGH – Keep your eye on the Southerners.
If we’re talking political clichés, one of the most familiar is that the Sunbelt has played a decisive role in presidential contests for nearly half a century. I was sold on the political science behind this fact years ago by a professor of mine at UNC-Chapel Hill, Merle Black, who went on to Emory and to writing a series of excellent books on Southern politics with his twin brother Earl (my affinity for the Blacks may well have originated not just because of my Southern predisposition but also because I am, too, an identical twin).
Since 1964, the winning candidate for president has always hailed either from the South proper or from Southern California. Of course, this rule works only if you consider Bush 41 to be a Texan, rather than a New Englander, but as he spent decades there and even represented a Texas district in the U.S. House, it’s not too far of a stretch. I might consider the Sunbelt rule to be simply an interesting coincidence if I hadn’t imbibed the Blacks’ arguments about the changing electoral math and how Southern-ness has come to tip the balance.
Just a couple of months ago, the 2008 presidential contest seemed like it would put an end to the Sunbelt supremacy. The leading Democratic candidates didn’t fit the bill. Hillary Clinton had practiced law in Little Rock, true, but hailed from Illinois and now represented New York. Barack Obama was also from Illinois. The Southerner, John Edwards, appeared to have lost his momentum to Obama and lacked a clear rationale for the race.
On the Republican side, John McCain had carried the Sunbelt banner, yet trailed Rudy Giuliani in notoriety and crossover appeal and Mitt Romney in money and movement support. The other relevant candidates – Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, Duncan Hunter of Southern Cal, and perhaps Ron Paul of Texas – weren’t even close to the top tier.
But now the Southerners are making some moves.
Like it or not, intended or not, the announcement of Elizabeth Edwards’ resurgent cancer and how the couple explained their decision to continue the presidential campaign gave John Edwards another opportunity to introduce himself to voters. He did it well. There’s been only a slight uptick in his national polling in recent weeks, but Edwards finished the 1st quarter with solid fundraising, particularly online, and an undeniable momentum in media coverage and political excitement. For example, the Wall Street Journal reported Monday, the Edwards campaign is seeing a dozen television cameras at its campaign stops now, compared to an average of about three just a month ago.
As for the GOP race, it’s about to be shuffled around with the likely addition of former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson. McCain continues to fade, as evidenced by his anemic fundraising. Giuliani and Romney continue to display their respective strengths, but neither will be an easy fit for a Republican Party used to nominating mainstream conservatives whose positions on key issues have leaned right for longer than, say, two years. That’s part of the attraction of Thompson – he’s basically a known quantity with a proven ability to communicate. And he’s from the South.
Geography may fade as a political factor. The Sunbelt supremacy will eventually give way to something else. All political structures get upended eventually. But it’s just possible than one or both of the Southerners will get their parties’ nods, keeping the string alive for one more election cycle.
Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation.