RALEIGH — We finally got here: the end of the 2004 election cycle. It feels like one of the longest campaigns in decades. Seriously, how many bad television programs have been canceled since Democrats starting announcing their presidential aspirations?

I’m guessing even “Keen Eddie” and “The Mullets” had more redeeming value than, say, the Howard Dean campaign — which was, in terms of dollars squandered and ink spilled per vote received, one of the greatest fiascos in American political history.

Here in North Carolina, we’ve also been through what feels like an electoral marathon. The route has included the latest, dizzying round of litigation on legislative redistricting, a GOP primary for governor that went on and on, and the Meg Scott Phipps and Frank Ballance affairs, both resulting in new candidates for the 2004 elections.

As the last hours of the cycle tick away, here are some rather-random notes, observations, and suggestions for taking in Election Night 2004:

* The presidential race looks like it will come down to the turnout differentials in some 11 battleground states. But the list isn’t the same one we started with. Missouri, that classic bellwether state, seems safely Bush, for example. The 11 I’m watching are the six Midwest/Midatlantic states (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania); regional outliers Florida, in the South, and New Hampshire, in the Northeast; the Western states of Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado; and, strangest of all, Hawaii.

* The battle for control of the U.S. Senate is fascinating. Republicans, now with a slim 51-48 majority (plus Jeffords), seem primed to pick up Georgia and South Carolina from the Democrats while protecting Oklahoma. Democrats seem prime to pick up Illinois and Colorado. Alaska, Florida, and our own North Carolina are too close to call. Louisiana will go to the Republican tomorrow, but perhaps not by the 50 percent threshold needed to avoid a December runoff.

• The Republicans enjoy a 23-seat majority in the U.S. House of Representatives. By most accounts, there are fewer than 23 toss-up seats this year. You do the math. In North Carolina, the sort-of-competitive races to watch are held by two GOP incumbents (Robin Hayes in the 8th and Charles Taylor in the 11th) and one Democrat (Brad Miller in the 13th). A party switch would be a surprise.

* Among the nation’s governors, Republicans have a 28-22 edge. There are 11 seats up for grabs this year, of which six appear already decided: 3 for the Ds and 3 for the Rs. The five remaining states include two where Republicans are the incumbent party and three where Democrats are. Best guess here is that the GOP will add to its majority.

* With regard to state legislatures nationwide, there are 21 states with Republican control of both chambers, 17 with Democratic control, 11 with a party split — and Nebraska, where the legislature is unicameral and nonpartisan. At least a dozen states have tight races for control of one or both chambers, and millions of dollars are flowing into these races from independent expenditures and 527s, just as we’ve seen in the federal and statewide races.

* Here in North Carolina, Democrats effectively control both chambers of the General Assembly. Republicans will need not only to protect their 62-58 majority in the NC House but add several seats to organize the chamber on their own. To move from a 23-27 deficit in the NC Senate to parity or more, they’ll need to win virtually all of the competitive seats.

* Watch for tough battles for party control of county commissions in Mecklenburg, Wake, Guilford, and other communities across North Carolina.

Finally, listen to the best coverage of the 2004 election returns available in North Carolina by checking out this list of the nearly 40 radio stations carrying the NC Spin network broadcast. My colleages and I promise to keep things interesting. You can always turn down the sound on your favorite TV news channel and turn up our North Carolina-oriented show, which will continue as late in the evening, or morning, as required.

The only confident prediction I’ll issue at this juncture is that we are all going to be surprised by something Tuesday night — and perhaps by lots of things. In retrospect, of course, it will all be so obvious.

Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation and publisher of Carolina Journal.