RALEIGH – The long-proposed, oft-defeated state lottery for North Carolina is still nonexistent. Although provisions governing a lottery’s operation and fund distribution were enacted as part of the 2005-07 budget bill, the lottery itself still requires a distinct floor vote by the North Carolina Senate to come into existence (through approval of the now-outdated bill passed a couple of months ago by the NC House).
If that doesn’t work, the other path to the state lottery’s creation would require new floor votes by both chambers, which could happen in one of two ways: 1) the Senate rejects the House lottery bill, enacts its own freestanding bill, and then the two form a conference committee to work out a compromise bill; or 2) either House or Senate leaders stick the lottery onto an unrelated piece of legislation, such as a minimum-wage increase or tax-cut package.
What are the odds of passage in 2005? Well below 50 percent at this writing, though not zero. The legislature is essentially taking this week off, both to recover from last week’s marathon session of preening, porkery, and prodigality as well as to allow some members to attend a national conference in Seattle. The two chambers will reconvene for real early next week to vote June Atkinson into the state superintendent’s office and to tidy up remaining legislation for the year.
As was made clear by weekend press coverage, the margin in the Senate remains 26 opposed, 24 in favor. A tie is enough to pass the lottery. Proponents have to either switch the vote of one of the 21 Republicans or five anti-lottery Democrats, or they must get a net of two anti-lottery members to sit out a vote. Contrary to usual practice, the latter strategy – to shirk one’s responsibility to cast a vote – has not been confined to secretive whispers but instead has been admitted to publicly by teacher-union activists and other lottery supporters. I frankly think that this makes it very difficult now for one of the 21 Rs or give Ds to take a walk. They will not be able to assert with any credibility that they just “had to go the bathroom” or “couldn’t make it to session today.”
The sit-out strategy could still happen, particularly if Senate leaders pull some kind of shenanigan this week when the chambers do not appear to be in active session.
A good way to grasp the situation is to study carefully what Senate leader Marc Basnight, House Speaker Jim Black, and representatives of the Easley administration are saying about the state lottery. They are no longer confidently or even diffidently predicting a successful floor vote. Rather, they are talking about how the Republican Party, through enforcing caucus discipline on its members, is responsible for stopping the state lottery this year.
Obviously, Democratic leaders have decided that the next-best thing to having a state gambling monopoly for building bigger government is to have the lottery issue in the 2006 legislative elections. They know that their tax increases, policies on issues such as immigration and same-sex marriage, and pork-barrel spending will give GOP candidates plenty of campaign fodder (the Teapot Dumb scandal alone is a gift to ad copywriters). The lottery, on the other hand, scores majority support in most public opinion polls.
Will this blame-the-GOP strategy work?
Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation.