The past few days have provided what would seem to be some damaging revelations for the presidential campaign of Sen. John Edwards.
First, The Washington Times reported that Edwards had been late paying property taxes on a pricey home in the District of Columbia. The senator later paid it, but the Times and other media explained that it had hardly been the first time Edwards had waited so late to pay his taxes that penalties had been assessed. The Associated Press noted that on at least eight occasions he had failed to make timely tax payments. These episodes go back many years.
A big deal? Not necessarily on its own terms. Such news can be embarrassing, and creates golden opportunities for political critics to score some points, as several Republicans did. But many people have, on occasion, failed to pay bills on time, and some are just lazy or disorganized enough to have a pattern of such late payment. The problem is here that Edwards, reportedly not a piker, could well afford to have someone collect and pay his bills. This looks less like forgetfulness and more like a cavalier disregard for the normal responsibilities of a citizen and taxpayer.
The Edwards campaign took some additional hits with the news that a series of town-hall meetings with his North Carolina constituents wouldn’t be on the senator’s own schedule — as he is too busy campaigning in early-primary states. Bad symbolism, at least, for a candidate who is already receiving some criticism for ignoring his own state and senatorial responsibilities and for refusing to decide between his presidential ambitions and a re-election bid. Together with the tax flap, the news offered the possibility that Edwards and his staff really weren’t ready for prime time, that they were too disorganized and ham-handed to pull off a national victory against a popular incumbent president.
On top of all that, the latest polls in key states such as Michigan, New Hampshire, Iowa, and his native South Carolina showed Edwards continuing to lead only the second tier of Democratic candidates, while rivals Howard Dean, John Kerry, Joe Lieberman, and Dick Gephardt jockeyed for the lead.
So is Edwards finished? Did he ever even start?
The Edwards-skeptics shouldn’t get too carried away with this. There were also some political developments in the past couple of weeks that I think work to Edwards’ advantage. For one thing, Howard Dean is the flavor of the month — having outraised his rivals in the second quarter and made it to two newsmagazine covers on the same week — and this has made Gephardt and Kerry move to the left in Iowa and New Hampshire, respectively, to guard their political territory. Either the rabid anti-Bush Democrats at the core push Dean all the way through the primaries and into a McGovern-style debacle against Bush in 2004 or more-sensible Democratic donors, activists, and voters will recoil and seek a more salable candidate. But with Dean having pulled Gephardt and Kerry so far out of the political mainstream, who would be left among major candidates? Joe Lieberman, who is probably too centrist even for the Democratic moderates, and John Edwards.
That’s why the smart money isn’t on any early favorites. That’s why there continues to be buzz about other candidates getting in, or back in, to the race. That’s why Edwards is moving ahead with his first major media buys in Iowa and New Hampshire, which will likely boost his numbers up to more respectable, if still second-tier, levels in the coming weeks. And that’s why the presidential campaign still promises to surprise and entertain.
Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation and publisher of Carolina Journal.