RALEIGH – A couple of days ago, I wrote about the issue of base-voter intensity and how a new poll from the Pew Research Center suggested that Republicans were, at this early stage in the 2002 election cycle, more likely to turn out in the fall. But there are other indicators out there, other poll findings that I think suggest a close margin in congressional and legislative elections.
The best news for Democrats is that, despite the efforts of Washington GOP-types to keep national security at the forefront of the public agenda, voters will likely return to domestic issues such as Social Security, Medicare, education, and health care when they go to the polls in November. Barring another terrorist attack or a war in the Middle East – and let’s hope we can bar such events from happening – I don’t think that foreign policy will be the dominant issue.
Democrats better hope it isn’t, because is one of the issue clusters on which the GOP has a huge advantage. On the domestic issues, voters lean Democratic on many and Republican on a couple. One trouble sign for Democrats is that their advantage on education, traditionally a core issue for the party, has almost disappeared. President Bush’s education initiative wasn’t all that popular with conservatives, and for some good reasons, but it has helped his party on the issue with swing voters.
Republicans are way out ahead on federal spending and taxes. In federal and state races where government waste and taxes are major issues – wink, wink, nudge, nudge – Republican candidates are likely to do better than average. In places where other concerns, such as protecting Social Security and Medicare, trump the tax issue, Democrats will win some races.
I’m not talking about the merits of the positions here – after all, Bush has the only rational strategy on the table right now for savings Social Security and Medicare through investment accounts – but about electoral politics as depicted in current survey snapshots.
Lastly, Public Opinion Strategies has a study out that shows the performance of a president’s party in congressional elections. Since the 1950s, when a president’s approval rating is above 60 percent, his party loses little in mid-year elections. When it is below 50 percent, his party crashes and burns, with an average loss of 46 seats in the U.S. House.
It’s a bit mechanistic, but I think their model reflects some underlying common sense. If the president enjoys a broad base of support – beyond his core voters and into the swings and base of the other party – it is difficult to sustain a political revolution against his party’s leadership.