RALEIGH – Many North Carolina Republicans, flush with victory against Democrats on taxes, the state lottery, and redistricting, think they are about to ride a partisan bandwagon to success in November. It’s important for them to keep in mind, however, that the driver of that wagon isn’t in our state at all. It’s George W. Bush.
Political observers continue to marvel at Bush’s ability to maintain high and widespread levels of support long after the initial battles of the war on terrorism last fall in Afghanistan. Although one Zogby poll out this month (see http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=601) has his approval rating down to 62 percent nationwide – and “down” to 62 percent does put some things in perspective – most other national polls have President Bush still in the 70 percent range or higher.
For example, a TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence poll for the Christian Science Monitor and Investor’s Business Daily has Bush’s leadership index right at 70 percent in July, essentially unchanged from June despite the past few weeks of market declines (see http://www.christiansciencemonitor.com/2002/0719/p04s01-uspo.html). The New York Times and the Washington Post polls have also pegged his approvals in the 70s (see http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/vault/stories/data071602.htm). Other than the Zogby poll, which bears watching given his past success in capturing the public mood, there doesn’t seem to be much of a decline in Bush’s popularity since the beginning of the year.
That’s good news for the Republicans. Historically the approval rating of presidents has tracked pretty well with the success or failure of his party in mid-term elections. As long as Bush stays in the 60s, GOP candidates are likely to do well in congressional races and even prosper at the state and local levels. If he falls into the 50s – still a majority but no longer a commanding one – his ability to bring reluctant independents and conservative Democrats into the Republican fold will disappear. That means individual candidates will rise or fall on their own terms.
Finally, if Bush falls below 50 percent approval, expect a big Democratic resurgence in November, taking the U.S. House and resisting Republican assault in state and local races not only in our own state but in South Carolina, New York, Illinois, Massachusetts, and California, among others.
It’s not that the president’s popularity would convince that many undecided voters that they are better off with a Republican governor, legislator, or county commissioner instead of a Democrat. It is a question of enthusiasm and comfort level. Enthusiastic Republicans, happy with their leader, will work hard and turn out voters. Dispirited Republicans won’t. And independents will feel less of a need to balance Bush with a Democratic Congress or with Democrats in states and localities if they continue to have great confidence in the president.
So watching the poll numbers on Bush – they’ll be a leading indicator of GOP prospects in North Carolina.