I’ve devoted my Daily Journals this week to discussing 18 races in the North Carolina House that I believe to be the most competitive this year (in my separate syndicated column for some 30 newspapers across the state, I’m covering another nine tough races to watch in the battle for the N.C. Senate). I’m not suggesting that other races might not be competitive — my suspicion is that this year of recessions, taxes, scandals, and litigation might still offer some unforeseen political drama — but these are the cases I have identified where the characteristics of the nominees and the demographics of the districts promise to make things particularly interesting.

Today’s task is to wrap up discussion of the House races by looking westward to four districts where either the Democrat or the Republican has a credible scenario for victory. The first district barely qualifies as “western,” I must admit, in that it is contained in Gaston County just west of Charlotte. District 109 is an open swing seat where Democrat John Eaker, a school board member and dairy farmer, faces Republican Patrick McHenry, a sales executive and former Bush administration official. Eaker is a former teacher who has served on the school board for nearly two decades. He told the Gaston Gazette that he was running in part to make sure Democrats stay in control of the House. “I’m concerned that the state continue its commitment to education and environmental issues,” he said. If Eaker’s message is to stay the course, McHenry — who in a previous run became North Carolina’s youngest-ever legislative candidate — is promising significant change as a strong conservative who is pro-life, pro-2nd Amendment rights, anti-fraud and waste in Medicaid, and pro-tax reduction. On education issues, he favors making it a state budget priority but also allowing more choice and competition.

Traveling west from Gaston on Highway 74 takes you into District 111, a moderately Democratic seat in Cleveland County with a moderate Democrat, Andy Dedmon, as the three-term incumbent. Dedmon, a property manager, portrays himself as a pro-business Democrat and was a supporter of the proposed state lottery referendum. A problem in this district, which includes a lot of fiscally conservative Dems, is that Dedmon took a no-tax-hike pledge prior to his election in 2000 and then broke it repeatedly in 2001 and 2002 with votes for tax increases. Republican candidate Tim Moore, an attorney and former county GOP chair, makes his “pledge not to support tax increases” and Dedmon’s willingness to “raise taxes when folks are losing jobs and the economy is slowing down” the central theme of his campaign. He also favors more local control and choice alternatives in education. Given the nature of the voting patterns, though, Moore has an uphill battle.

Motor west a bit more and you reach District 112, another open swing seat, where another longtime school board member, Bob England, has the Democratic nod against another Republican attorney, David Rogers. England emphasizes education issues and takes traditionally liberal positions in most cases. Rogers fills the bill on the other side of the spectrum with traditionally conservative views on taxes and spending. England has the advantage of experience and name recognition in this mainly Rutherford County district, but the voting patterns slightly favor Rogers.

Finally, in the far western District 118 — a swing district that includes Haywood, Madison, and Yancey counties — incumbent Republican Marge Carpenter faces a strong challenge from Democrat Ray Rapp, a Mars Hill College dean and also Mayor of Mars Hill. Carpenter is running as a “family values” candidate who supports character education, opposes the lottery, and is pro-life. She also favors higher academic standards and opposes the state’s recent series of tax increases. Interestingly, she says that as a supporter of the 2000 higher education bond, she now believes that the bond sales may have to be delayed somewhat in order to reduce pressure on the debt service budget. Rapp says that if elected, he will fight to get Mars Hill its “fair share” of state funding and will bring his perspective from higher education to discussions about state budgets and policies.

Let me conclude by saying that the prospects for a change in partisan control of the North Carolina House are iffy. Contrary to the pap you may have heard about a “Republican gerrymander,” the new House districts are still mildly tilted towards the Democrats (I would contend that the Senate map is closer to “fair”). Even so, GOP candidates in these 18 races, who are for the most part running on a unified message of fiscal conservatism and lower taxes, do have a chance of beating their Democratic challengers, many running on more local or personal issues and having to defend some unpopular decisions over the past two years. NC FREE has rated 57 of the seats as GOP likely or favored, 59 as Democrat likely or favored, and four as toss-ups. I’d put it closer to 56-56-8.