Predicting elections a year before they happen is always a dangerous business. But here we go: Obviously the economy and Iraq will be the two central issues framing the presidential, congressional, and statewide elections.
I would submit to you that jobs and job creation in North Carolina will play a large part in not only the gubernatorial campaign, but in the congressional, Senate, and presidential races as well. Certainly, 7.2 percent growth in the GDP for the third quarter is a potential huge plus for President Bush and incumbents in general.
The problem is in some key electoral states this may be a jobless recovery. The Democrats will point out that three million jobs were lost during the Bush administration’s first term.
However, the Bush administration had good news in October as the Labor Department reported non-farm business payrolls increased by 126,000, the sharpest growth in nine months. Unemployment fell a tenth of a point to 6 percent. Many economists had expected the unemployment rate to come in higher at 6.1 percent and the payrolls to grow by just 55,000 new hires.
As we all know, particularly in North Carolina and other parts of the South and the Midwest, some manufacturing jobs will never come back. Assuming that we are in a period of economic growth, the question is how many jobs will be created before October 2004?
It is my perception that there is a segment of the electorate that is very frustrated and angry over their inability to find work. Right now the most visible manifestation of voter dissatisfaction is with the economy. Whether that anger manifests itself against the occupant in the White House or other incumbents remains to be seen.
I would point out that since the election of 2002 and including the California recall, 22 states have kicked the party in power out of the governor’s mansion, while 15 have kept the same party in office. Thirteen states have not held elections. The election of Republican governors in Mississippi and Kentucky may well be a barometer of good things to come for Republicans — particularly in the South. For instance, many believe that Republicans have an excellent shot to pick up Senate seats in North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia, and now with Sen. Bob Graham retiring, in Florida as well.
Here at home, it appears to me that the Democrats have the upper hand in the governor’s race, in that Gov. Mike Easley does not seem to be getting the blame for a poor economy. In fact, recently Easley has sounded more like a Republican than a Democrat on economic policy, particularly in regard to corporate taxes.
Now – on to handicapping the upcoming Senate race. It would not be unexpected if this race goes down to the wire. It is my view that U.S. Rep. Richard Burr will be the eventual winner.
Last year’s race between Dole and Bowles was an aberration in that the campaign was not fought on traditional ideological grounds. It was not a typical North Carolina Senate race. Mrs. Dole, because of both her gender and her resume, was not an easy or accessible target.
If history is any guide, I would expect the upcoming Senate battle between Bowles and Burr to be much more like a Hunt-Helms race than a Dole-Bowles race.
Burr’s future and that of his opposition, to a certain extent, will be directly tied to the success or failure of Bush’s economic and foreign policy.
The ongoing hostilities in Iraq are an election variable that is yet to be quantified. After the Gulf War, the public became accustomed to push-button battles, quick victories, and low casualties. I would submit to you that since the experience of Vietnam, the Baby Boomer generation in particular has a low tolerance for American casualties on foreign soil. What that threshold for American casualties is remains to be seen.
If in the next six months the body count begins to rise, and it appears that the president and his foreign-policy team have not gotten a handle on internal security in Iraq, then this will be a much closer election than the president’s campaign team would like. On the flip side, if the public perceives that the president’s team and the military have a handle on the internal security in Iraq, then I would predict that Bush and the Republican Party are well on their way to a decisive victory.
In my mind, the key question in the upcoming election is whether Americans have the resolve to stay the course in Iraq through thick or thin with Bush. An ABC News Washington Post poll released Nov. 2 shows that the president’s policies in Iraq enjoy only a 47 percent approval rating, and for the first time a bare majority 51 percent approve. Less than one in 10 respondents said Bush has made the nation more prosperous. But it is worth pointing out that this poll was taken before the release of the Labor Department’s economic numbers for October.
Bush still tops his Democratic competition in head-to-head matchups with margins of nine to 18 points, depending on the rival. Three-fourths of Democrats are still shopping for a nominee. And, as we look at the red and blue states, this is still a 50-48 nation electorally.
As of now, Gov. Howard Dean and U.S. Rep. Richard Gephardt are the front-runners for the Democratic presidential nomination. If Dean becomes the nominee, look for a Republican sweep across the nation. If the Democrats nominate Gephardt, then we will see a much closer race.