Can we talk? I hope so, because I believe it’s time for a frank discussion within the Republican Party and the conservative movement about the upcoming elections and the direction in which we’re headed.

To set the stage going into the 2006 elections there are several recent polls that I would like to share with you.

According to the RealClearPolitics website, which averages the major surveys on the opinions of the American public, President Bush has a job approval rating of 37 percent. A recent ABC News/Washington Post poll found that only 39 percent of Americans approved of the president’s handling of the war in Iraq.

A Time Magazine Survey, taken in late January, found that 61 percent of Americans disapprove of the job Bush is doing when it comes to illegal immigration and securing America’s borders.

One final survey taken by CNN/USA Today and the Gallup organization asked the question, “What is your party preference in the upcoming congressional elections?”

The American people at this point in time by a ratio of 53 percent to 39 percent would prefer that the Democrats take control of Congress.

Let me point out that in 1994 when Republicans took control of the House for the first time in 40 years, these were the same types of margins that Republicans were enjoying before that election.

So how does the president and the Republican Party find themselves in this dilemma? Let me briefly identify some of the front-burner issues.

Issues: The war in Iraq, the handling of Katrina, the illegal-immigration issue, federal spending, and the Dubai ports fiasco.

Make no mistake about it, the president’s legacy is on the line in Iraq. The outcome of the war in Iraq will mainly be dictated by events on the ground. The political will of the president, the American people, and their elected representatives will also influence the end result.

If, on Election Day, Americans think that the Iraq War is headed in the right direction and that our troops will be home in a timely manner, then fate may well smile on the Republican Party. If not, it might be a long night for Republicans.

With respect to the devastation and the handling of the aftermath of Katrina, the Bush administration and the Republican Party should not underestimate America’s disappointment with the lack of response to the disaster. For the first time many in America questioned whether the Bush administration was “up to the task” in time of crisis.

As the polls indicate, many people think that the president is not dealing effectively with the crisis on the Mexican border. By not doing so, I believe he risks alienating his conservative base and those Reagan blue-collar Democrats who historically helped create the Republican electoral majority.

To date, and to the great dismay of many conservatives, Bush has yet to veto a single spending bill. Our national debt is more than $8 trillion.

Then there is the Dubai Ports deal, which by any measure was a political nightmare for the Bush administration and the Republican Party.

Many were asking how the Bush administration, which had been so disciplined, could suddenly be “politically tone deaf.”
But as they say, the game isn’t over until the fat lady sings. We must adjust and find solutions to the problems that currently confront the nation.

First and foremost, FEMA must be seen as capable of “stepping up to the plate” and responding should another disaster strike America. The bureaucratic problems that transpired after FEMA became a part of the Homeland Security Administration must be fixed, and fast.

At this time there has been an ever-increasing disconnect between the American people and the “inside the beltway” crowd with regard to illegal immigration. In a time of war securing our borders must be a top priority.

The president needs to demonstrate the same leadership he exhibited after Sept 11.

Perhaps he should consider doing something bold:
* Such as putting troops on our borders.
* or keeping Congress in session until the tax cuts are made permanent and the estate tax is eliminated.
* vetoing a major spending bill.
* or staff changes in the White House

As outlined above, this is a time of both peril and great opportunity for America. The party that deals with the tough questions will win the voters’ confidence.

Marc Rotterman is a senior fellow of the John Locke Foundation and treasurer of the American Conservative Union.