RALEIGH – October is turning out to be a month chock-full of political portents. At the local, state, and national levels, you should keep your eye on a number of outcomes and news items that offer some insight into the direction of our political debate.

Within North Carolina, there are the municipal and school-board elections scheduled for this coming Tuesday. In Monday’s Daily Journal column, I’ll profile each of the local races I’m watching – the list is shorter than usual, given the smaller-than-usual number of competitive and newsworthy contests – and perhaps speculate a little about the outcomes. In general, however, look to see how incumbents fare and how key referendum campaigns turn out.

With incumbents, we saw in the 2001 cycle of local elections a bit of a indicator of how state elections in 2002 would be affected by a growing wave of voter discontent with the status quo. A number of incumbent mayors and council members, in some cases previously serving for many years, were defeated in 2001 elections. This followed an anti-incumbent pattern more than a partisan or ideological one. Sure enough, the 2002 elections resulted in significant turnover in state legislative seats, though some of that was clearly due to redistricting.

Another set of important North Carolina news items will appear late in the month as we get a better sense of how various incumbents and candidates fared in the third quarter in their campaign fundraising. The six-person race for the Republican nomination for governor is going to start getting more attention, and there will inevitably develop a pecking order among the top three candidates – 2000 nominee Richard Vinroot, NC Senate minority leader Patrick Ballantine, and former NC GOP Chairman Bill Cobey – based in part on their prowess in attracting the resources needed to run an effective statewide campaign next year. Through mid-year, it was Ballantine who led the money chase.

Meanwhile, the fortunes of outgoing Sen. John Edwards in the Democratic presidential field are obviously being affected by the entrance of Gen. Wesley Clark, also a Southerner and also pitching a moderate (within the Democratic Party) message. During October, look for signs of life in the Edwards campaign in statewide polls expected to be released in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and other early-primary states. Edwards still has to come in third in NH, I think, and convincingly win South Carolina to keep his hopes alive. Believe it or not, both still seem possible. Actually, the SC win isn’t really enough; he’ll have to do well enough in other states holding primaries on the same day as SC to become the anti-Dean favorite of Democratic moderates and Southerners. That means coming in at least second overall that day, which in turns means doing well in states such as Arizona and Oklahoma. October polls should clarify matters there.

Finally, and perhaps most interestingly, the California gubernatorial recall next Tuesday will overshadow the North Carolina municipal elections – even for more political junkies in North Carolina. It’s a big deal, no question about it. Schwarzenegger seems to be surging, Davis peaking, and Bustamante choking. But no one really knows who is going to vote (or who has already voted via absentee ballot). I think that if there is any broader political message at all from the California outcome, it will be that career politicians still don’t elicit much voter loyalty. The result may also demonstrate that voters don’t buy the idea – popular on both sides of the political spectrum – that they have too much power to effect political change through devices such as recalls and referendums.

The October newspapers ought to keep all the wags and pundits busy.

Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation and publisher of Carolina Journal.