RALEIGH — State and national Republicans are gleeful about their party’s fortunes and their political prospects in 2004, and it’s not hard to understand why.
President George W. Bush has shown himself to be a strong and effective leader in both the domestic and foreign policy fields. His handling of the post 9/11 challenges facing America has, by most accounts, been steady and praiseworthy. Most Americans have agreed with his decisions to take forceful action in Afghanistan and Iraq against Islamofascist terrorists and the tyrants who enable them. On the economy, voters are less confident in Bush’s chosen policies — supply-side tax relief and trade negotiations, with a small amount of deregulation tossed in — than they are in the president’s intentions. That’s still good news for him.
Plus, the stock market is rising impressively in the aftermath of his victory in the 2003 tax debate on Capitol Hill, a victory that many political observers had said he would not secure. There are scattered signs throughout the rest of the economy that the economic recovery may be broadening and deepening. If within the next year or so investors are reassured about the future of their retirement accounts and nervous workers get the idea that job creation is returning to the economy, Bush will likely be unbeatable — except by himself, by some horrible gaffe or scandal.
Turning to North Carolina, some Republicans are looking at polls suggesting close to 70 percent approval ratings for Bush here and dreaming of something similar in 2004 at the polls. If the president draws more than 60 percent of the vote for re-election in North Carolina, the thinking goes, that will help to propel Republicans into the governor’s mansion, the Council of State, and the General Assembly. There’s nothing magical about this, nothing stopping moderates and conservative Democrats from splitting their tickets. But the theory is that the enthusiasm for Bush will turn out Republican voters in droves and push up straight-ticket voting enough to boost GOP candidates over some otherwise daunting hurdles.
This is a plausible scenario. But before Republicans start planning their post-election celebration galas, they should consider some other factors. First, Gov. Mike Easley may be a relatively weak incumbent, but he’s still an incumbent. Look for Easley to expand his use of the office over the next few months to tout his legislative accomplishments, reconnect with Democratic voters and interest groups statewide, and keep his name in the news as much as possible.
Second, the GOP in North Carolina will likely see some factional infighting next year that could lead to disarray or worse. The Richard Morgan-Harold Brubaker group of Republicans in the North Carolina House and in a few Republican-leaning counties will face a no-holds-barred assault from Republicans politicians and activists in Charlotte, Raleigh, Eastern North Carolina, and elsewhere in the state. There will likely be primary challenges in several GOP districts, if not a fight before then about redistricting.
At the statewide level, gubernatorial frontrunners Richard Vinroot and Patrick Ballantine bring different backgrounds, supporters, and political strengths to a race that is impossible to call at this stage. Vinroot starts out with a significant lead in name ID and leadership credentials and with a base in the traditionally Republican Piedmont and west. Ballantine brings youthful vigor and a growing list of supporters in the Triangle and Eastern North Carolina. Their political ideologies are hard to distinguish but their styles and potential strategies against Easley are quite different.
It’s actually a blessing, I think, for a statewide candidate to face a significant primary challenge — as long as it doesn’t get nasty. Competition is a good thing. It heightens the senses and sharpens the mind. But if either Vinroot or Ballantine is nominated in a close-fought, bitter primary that leaves bad feelings in its wake, Easley could buck even a strong Bush surge in North Carolina.
Nationally, there remain many uncertainties. The economy could falter again for some reason, possibly related to uncontrollable events in Europe or Asia. Another major terrorist strike could rattle the public’s confidence, as could a problematic occupation of Iraq. Bush looks very strong at this writing. It is way too early, however, to assume the existence of a tidal wave for the president and then try to estimate its potential impact on North Carolina politics.
Wait, watch, and ward off premature conclusions.
Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation and publisher of Carolina Journal.