As news reports broke Wednesday that former Clinton chief of staff Erskine Bowles, the 2002 Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate, would officially announce his second try at the job, there was a lot of talk around the state capital about whether he would face a serious primary challenger this go around.
In 2002, Bowles had to contend with former state House Speaker Dan Blue and Secretary of State Elaine Marshall for the Democratic nod. While Blue ran out of money and Marshall woefully underperformed in the (much-delayed) Senate primary, Bowles did have months of intra-party campaigning to endure while Republican Elzabeth Dole spent much of the spring and summer of 2002 racking up brownie points and bucks for the general election.
Plenty of Democratic insiders and strategists, many outside of North Carolina but intensely interested in the race, don’t want Bowles to have to go through that, again. Within the state, Democrats are worried about fissures already evident within the party — reflecting ideological, organization, and to some degree racial tensions — getting wider and deeper if Bowles and Blue end up staging a rematch. They fear that the divisions may end up hurting Democratic candidates up and down the ballot, for example if Bowles is again nominated and as a result liberal activists, anti-establishment Dean-iacs, and minority voters lack enthusiasm going into the fall campaign.
Outside of North Carolina, the concern is quite clearly about the tight margins in the U.S. Senate. With only a 51-seat majority, Republicans are having a hard time with judicial confirmations and big-ticket legislation. Some GOP strategists believe that 2004 might net them an additional four or five Senate seats, largely coming from pick-ups in the South. This result would significantly weaken the Democrats’ position in fillibusters and legislative negotiations, given that a few moderate Dems won’t go along with obstruction at such a margin.
So party leaders would like to see strong efforts materialize in the competitive Senate races where they have a legitimate shot at defending Democratic seats — North Carolina being at the top of the list. They see 5th District Congressman Richard Burr, the presumptive Republican nominee, as strong and likely well-funded for the 2004 campaign but by no means unbeatable, particularly if President Bush runs weaker-than-expected in the Tar Heel State. Given the Democrats’ relatively weaker position in South Carolina and Georgia, other states where open seats will invite strong GOP nominees, a focus on protecting the party’s claim to North Carolina (and Florida, where Sen. Bob Graham may be leaving another Democratic seat open) would seem prudent.
Some rumors suggest that Blue (and other potential candidates) have already signalled their willingness to step aside for the good of the party and let Bowles have a clear shot — as long as he commits to certain issues and runs an inclusive campaign. But other wags are saying that when Blue stays he’s still considering the race, that’s precisely what he means.
For my part, I’ve never bought the idea that a spirited party primary, as long as it doesn’t get viciously personal, hurts the eventual nominee. It frequently helps the nominee by improving name recognition, fleshing out policy positions, getting some inevitable mistakes out of the way, and getting the candidate into fitting trim for the fall. Bowles would probably prefer a clear shot at the nomination, but don’t think that he’s significantly helped if he gets it — or significantly hurt if he doesn’t.
Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation and host of the new statewide program Carolina Journal Radio.