RALEIGH — Political power often relies on credibility. Yes, some power is simply wielded, such as a vote or a committee chairman’s scheduling duties. But one vote, or even a leadership post, is rarely enough to make fundamental changes in policy. You need others to go along with you, you need to be able to mobilize public opinion and negotiate in good faith.

You need credibility.

That’s why politicians and their henchmen should refrain from making risible or easily disproven statements. I’m all for making effective use of spin (obviously) but you have to know when to stop.

In the week leading up to the North Carolina Republican convention in Charlotte this weekend, for example, House Co-Speaker Richard Morgan spun a little too forcefully, and ended up on his you-know-what. Despite clear signs that Republican activists across the state were disenchanted with what was going on in Raleigh — Morgan didn’t have to agree with them, of course, and could have argued they didn’t have the full picture — he dismissed the possibility that they would pass a censure resolution against him and his legislative allies.

“Rank-and-file Republicans and rank-and-file Democrats are satisfied,” Morgan told his hometown paper, The Pilot of Southern Pines. He said this while apparently missing the irony — if rank-and-file Democrats are satisfied, why would Republican convention-goers be? In the same story, a Morgan ally in the county GOP predicted that a censure resolution wouldn’t even reach the convention floor. “I hope they realize how foolish they are and won’t show up,” she said.

In The News & Observer of Raleigh, Morgan downplayed the size and influence of the GOP faction against him, referring to them as “back benchers” and saying that he heard “from Republicans that they are happy to have a Republican speaker.” Judging by the sentiment at the convention, it’s not clear how many actually believe there is a Republican speaker — though the attendees reflect the activists and donors of the party, not the entire universe of GOP voters.

Participants passed the resolution, and then some.

The temptation to over-spin isn’t a Republican one. Democrats do it, too. Last week, longtime Democratic political operative Mac McCorkle defended Gov. Mike Easley against criticism of his fiscal policies and perceptions that he might be vulnerable in 2004 as a result. “He has done, by any objective measure, better than any governor in the nation, and that’s reflected in his job approval rating,” he told The Charlotte Observer.

That’s about two more 360-degree spins than reality permits. First all, I am not aware of any “objective measure” that would rate Easley as best in the nation. Certainly it can’t be the economic numbers, which are truly abhorrent. It can’t be support within his own party, as surely even intensely loyal Easley defenders would admit that many in his own party aren’t crazy about him. It can’t be his record on predicting revenues or closing budget gaps, as both seem to slip away from the governor’s grasp at inopportune times.

Secondly, where’s all this fuss about his supposedly high approval rating coming from? As I have previously noted, there are a number of other governors around the country who enjoy higher approval, either in recent polls or in recent (2002) elections. And Easley is politically vulnerable next year. He is by no means the most unpopular governor in America — I believe that distinction belongs to California’s Gray Davis — but he can’t hold a candle politically to fellow Southern Democrats such as Mark Warner in Virginia or Phil Bredeson next door in Tennessee, not to mention Republicans Rick Perry in Texas and Jeb Bush in Florida.

Look, you can forcefully argue a political position without going overboard. Morgan obviously believes his co-speakership in the House has been successful, and hopes to prove his popularity among statewide Republicans in legislative elections next year. And McCorkle and other Easley defenders want their guy to get his due and to be re-elected in 2004. They should have just said what they meant and left it there.

Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation and publisher of Carolina Journal.