RALEIGH – The 2007 political season in North Carolina may be about half-over – with a couple dozen important voter referenda and several municipal races still to be decided next month – but around the country there remain quite a few electoral match-ups getting significant attention from pundits and party activists.
The biggest headlines are two notable governor’s races in Kentucky and Louisiana (a third governorship up this year, in Mississippi, will be won by incumbent Republican Gov. Haley Barbour). The most likely outcome seems to be a Democratic pick-up in Kentucky and a Republican pick-up in Louisiana, for a net wash in the current 28-22 Democratic edge in governorships.
Both races involve problematic incumbents. In Kentucky, the Republican incumbent, Ernie Fletcher, won his primary against a former Congresswoman, Anne Northup but faces long odds indeed of surviving the general election against Democrat Steve Beshear, the former lieutenant governor (which was pretty much what Northup was warning during the GOP primary, though not enough voters got the message). One recent poll put Beshear up by 20 points, 55-35, which was actually an improvement for Fletcher from some earlier surveys I saw. While there are some sharp differences over policy issues, Fletcher’s main problem is a hiring scandal that led to several indictments within his administration, including his own.
As for the Louisiana context, the problematic incumbent – the hapless Kathleen Blanco, a Democrat – isn’t running again. But her performance during Hurricane Katrina did a great deal of damage to her administration and state Democrats. It hasn’t helped matters that some former New Orleans residents who exited the state after the storm have yet to move back to the state. They were heavily Democratic in voter preference.
The result is that Republican Bobby Jindal, whom Blanco narrowly defeated four years ago and was subsequently elected to Congress, is the leading candidate to replace her. A Louisianan of Indian descent, Jindal has a large lead in a multi-candidate field but because of the state’s odd run-off system, his victory is not a sure thing. Other candidates include state Sen. Walter Boasso, a former conservative Republican turned Democrat, and businessman John Georges, a former Republican turned independent. The old-line Democrat in the race is Foster Campbell.
Down the ballot a bit, Louisiana Republicans are hoping that a strong win by Jindal will help to propel a GOP takeover of the state House of Representatives, which currently has a 55-43-2 Democratic majority (including an independent and a vacancy). Just about everyone concedes that the Republicans will pick up seats, but it may prove a bit much to erase the whole gap in one fell swoop. In keeping with the theme of partisan balance, however, Democrats have an excellent chance to offset the GOP victory in Louisiana by capturing the Virginia Senate, which currently has 23 Republicans and 17 Democrats.
Political junkies get a bad rap for fixating on off-year elections because they are the only games being played, not because they really matter outside of their respective states. I think the record shows that odd political years often produce results the contain harbingers of future trends. For example, Republican state and local victories in 1993 were strong indicators that something important was going on in an electorate increasingly disenchanted with the Clinton administration and Democratic Congress. Similarly, 2005 brought Democratic wins in several local and special elections, serving as a strong indicator of what was to come a year later.
So if Democrats and Republicans achieve offsetting wins in 2007, what does that mean? Perhaps that, politically speaking, things are unsettled – that contrary to 1993-94 and 2005-06, there’s no wave on the horizon.
Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation.