RALEIGH – As we enter the first big week of state budget debate in Raleigh, here are some numbers to keep up mind.

First, $2.2 billion. That’s the estimated size of the General Fund deficit in the current fiscal year, through June. This is the short-run problem, the hole that the Perdue administration (and the Easley administration before it) has had to fill by cutting spending in most state agencies and tapping reserves such as the lottery fund and the rainy day fund.

Next, $3.6 billion. That’s now at the lower end of the projections for the General Fund deficit for the 2009-10 fiscal year that begins July 1. The comparable budget-deficit estimate for 2010-11 is $3.1 billion. This is the medium-run problem, the hole that the Perdue budget due out tomorrow will apparently try to fill over the next two fiscal years with a combination of significant budget cuts, federal bailout funds, tax increases on cigarettes and alcohol, and pulling previously off-budget revenue streams into the General Fund, such as proceeds from the national tobacco settlement currently going to Golden LEAF and the Health & Wellness Trust Fund.

Next, $1 billion+. That’s one estimate floating around Raleigh last week of the combined need for dollars into the health plan and retiree plan for teachers and state employees over the next couple of years. This is one of the long-term problems facing the Perdue administration and the General Assembly, a consequence of past decisions made on the basis of rosy scenarios and kick-the-can-down-the-road politics. This cost is not included into the official projections of 2009-10 and 2010-11 budget deficits in my prior paragraph.

Next, $30 billion. That’s probably the best current estimate of North Carolina’s unfunded liability for promised medical benefits to retired teachers and state employees. This is another of the long-term problems facing state leaders, and one that won’t be substantially alleviated even if the state begins a strong economic recovery in 2010 or 2011.

Next, 14 percent. That’s the upper end of the range of predicted unemployment rates for North Carolina in the coming months. The January rate was nearly 10 percent, one of the worst jobless rates in the United States. Yet I’ve recently heard radio interviews with key state officials and legislative leaders taking credit for past decisions that they claim put North Carolina “in a better position that most other states” in the current recession. This is a way-outdated talking point. North Carolina is in a worse position than most other states, just as North Carolina performed worse than the national average during the previous, milder 2000-01 recession.

Next, 39th. That’s North Carolina’s poor ranking in the Business Tax Climate Index produced every year by the Tax Foundation. We’re not even in the same league with the likes of Florida (5th), Texas (11th), or Virginia (15th) in the competitiveness of our tax structure. When the Left responds to Gov. Perdue’s budget by demanding that North Carolina increase the corporate tax burden or raise sales taxes on business services, ask them how such a move will help the state attract and retain job-creating companies.

Next, 11th. That’s the average national ranking of North Carolina’s various excise taxes on beer, wine, and liquor. Perdue will reportedly propose higher alcohol taxes.

Finally, 14 months. That’s the time left between now and the first opportunity voters will have to reward or punish state lawmakers, in party primaries, based on how they handle North Carolina’s most serious fiscal challenge in 80 years.

Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation