RALEIGH – An open field. That’s the term that Rep. Dewey Hill of Columbus County used to describe the race for House Speaker in 2007. As expected, Jim Black will face no Democratic uprising this year but many potential challengers should he seek the office next year. And that’s assuming just the scenario that Democrats remain in the majority in the House after the November elections. Additional aspirants – an even wider open field – would be evident if Republicans won a narrow majority in 2006, because a small group of moderate GOP members, possibly still led by a re-elected Richard Morgan, could still be available to Black or other Democrats fashioning a coalition.

Open field also aptly describes the races for NC House this year. Unlike the Senate, where Republicans have a decent chance of narrowing the 29-21 Democratic majority but must perform exceptionally well to gain the five seats necessary for control, the House is completely up for grabs. As I did yesterday, I will divide the May primaries of greatest interest into two categories: those with implications for partisan control in November and those without them.

November Battlegrounds

Voters in the down-east 3rd District can be forgiven for seeing their House race as a sort of political daytime drama where the same characters keep interacting, and sometimes over-acting. Democratic Rep. Alice Graham Underhill, daughter of the late Agriculture Commissioner Jim Graham, was elected to the seat in 2000. In 2002, she lost to Republican Michael Gorman, former mayor of Trent Woods. After cooperating with the Morgan faction of the House GOP, Gorman drew a successful primary challenge from conservative activist and former Craven GOP Chairman Michael Speciale, whom Underhill then defeated in the 2004 general election to reclaim the seat. The 2006 May primary features, of course, Gorman vs. Speciale. The winner will take on Underhill. Erica Kane reportedly considered moving to New Bern and filing in the Democratic primary, but several ex-husbands intervened.

The divide among House Republicans also factors into another rematch primary in the 10th District, centered on Kinston. Two-term incumbent Rep. Stephen LaRoque, previously voting with the Morgan faction, faces Willie Ray Starling, who challenged LaRoque two years ago. LaRoque is a businessman and former banker. Starling is a civil-service retiree and local Republican activist. In the fall, the winner will take on Democrat Van Braxton, a member of the Kinston City Council. I count this as a moderately Democratic district. It was among the most expensive House races in 2004.

If the 3rd District is All My Children, the 14th is Guiding Light: smaller cast, bigger story arcs. The Republican incumbent in this Onslow County swing seat is George Cleveland, local conservative activist, former schoolteacher, and former county GOP chairman. In 2002, he lost the GOP primary to Keith Williams, by 80 votes. Williams won in November. But Cleveland challenged Williams, a Morgan ally, in 2004 and defeated him. Now Williams, executive director of the legislature-created North Carolina Commission on State Property, is making a comeback bid. Meanwhile, on the Democratic side there is former schoolteacher and teacher-union board member Kever Clark. She served in the state senate briefly by appointment during the 2002 session but was defeated by Cecil Hargett in the Democratic primary that year. In 2004, she ran for House 14 against Cleveland. She’s running again in 2006. Her primary opponent, Edgar Midgett, withdrew from the race in March but his name will still be on the ballot.

In Nash County’s District 25, which I rate as a swing seat tilting Republican, incumbent Bill Daughtridge faced no opposition at all in 2004 – one of the few opportunities that Democrats left on the table that year, as opposed to the many that Republicans failed to seize. No such luck for him in 2006. Democrats Dennis Nielsen and Carnell Taylor are vying for the nod. Interestingly, Nielsen ran in 2004 as a Republican against Sen. A.B. Swindell of Nash County.

House 51, a Sandhills district represented since 2002 by Republican John Sauls, is an open seat for 2006. The Democratic candidate will be former Rep. Jimmy Love of Lee County, who ran unsuccessfully for state senate in 2004. The two GOP primary candidates are Bobby Ray Hall of Lee, who served two previous terms in the NC House, and Harnett County Commissioner Tim McNeil. Hall is the more conservative candidate. This is swing district with a Democratic tilt. Love’s service, by the way, was a while ago:10 years in the House in the 1960s and 1970s.

In Buncombe County’s House District 115, two-term Democratic incumbent Bruce Goforth will face the winner of a two-man Republican primary. Eric Gorny is a business owner and GOP activist from Swannanoa who emphasizes property rights, taxes, and scandals in Raleigh as key issues (get used to hearing that troika, by the way). His opponent is Bill Reynolds of Black Mountain. Goforth received nearly $90,000 from Speaker Black’s political organization in 2004, but has said he won’t accept such funding in 2006 given the scandal. The district is moderately Democratic, potentially competitive.

In neighboring House District 116, longtime incumbent Wilma Sherrill is retiring. This moderately Republican seat, also potentially competitive in November, has drawn the attention of six primary candidates, two Republicans and four Democrats. The Republicans are Bill Porter, a local GOP leader who previously ran against Rep. Susan Fisher, and Charles Thomas, a local businessman and former Army paratrooper. On the Democratic side, Doug Jones was Sherrill’s Democratic opponent in 2004 and is a teacher active in local party committees. His primary opponents are Gregory Cathcart, Jim Hughes, and James Latimore, all of Asheville.

Other Interesting Primaries

The 13th District, represented for many terms by Jean Preston, will be an open seat due to her candidacy for state senate. This moderately Republican district has two GOP candidates, Pat McElraft, former Mayor Pro Tem of Emerald Isle and current Carteret county commissioner, and Dave Fowler of Cape Carteret. The Republican will almost certainly defeat Democrat Malcolm Fulcher in November. Fulcher challenged Preston in 2004, to no avail.

In Onslow County’s 15th District, longtime Republican incumbent Robert Grady faces a primary challenge from George Schaeffer of Sneads Ferry. Republican Tommy Pollard also filed to run against Grady in May, but as of now he is not a legal candidate, his residency being successfully challenged by Grady before the state board of elections.

Thomas Wright is a veteran House member who represents the 18th District, in New Hanover and Pender Counties. A supporter of House Speaker Jim Black, Wright was co-chair of appropriations and formerly head of the Legislative Black Caucus. But unfavorable publicity at home and grumbling among some political activists about Wright’s affinity for Black appear to have weakened his support. Laura Padgett, a member of the Wilmington City Council and former state senate candidate, is challenging Wright in the Democratic primary.

In 2004, Michael Wray won an extremely crowded Democratic primary for House District 27, comprising Northampton, Warren, and part of Vance County. He is another white Democrat in a district where most Democrats are African-American. Wray faces two primary challengers this year: Anthony Butler of Henderson and Howard Ervin of Garysburg. This is a solidly Democratic seat, so the contest is the primary.

In another safely Democratic seat, House 29, incumbent Paul Miller is retiring. It’s an open seat, it’s safe, it’s in Durham – so, of course, the primary looks to be wild. There are five Democratic candidates. Three are former members of the Durham City Council: Angela Langley, Mary Jacobs (endorsed by the state’s largest teacher union, she also served as a county commissioner), and Sandy Ogburn (endorsed by the Conservation Council of NC). One, Brock Winslow, is a former aide to Gov. Jim Hunt and served briefly as executive director of the state Democratic Party. The last, attorney Larry Hall, ran for clerk of court in 2002. In a striking development, both Winslow and Hall have called for Jim Black to step down as speaker.

The GOP factional divide shows up in the Republican primary for House District 40, in Wake County. Rick Eddins is a six-term incumbent being challenged by Marilyn Avila, currently on leave from her longtime employment at the John Locke Foundation. Obviously, I will not be writing much about this race. The primary is the election here.

In Wake’s District 41, there is an extremely energetic race underway for the Democratic nomination to challenge Republican incumbent Russell Capps. The candidates are Ty Harrell, a Duke University fundraiser and local Democratic activist, and Chris Mintz, a financial-services professional who until fairly recently was head of the Wake County Republican Men’s Club. Yeah, go figure. I don’t get why Democrats think this district, heavily Republican with less than a third of voters registered D, is in play. But by all means study up on it if you wish – some of the invective is entertaining.

Moore County’s House 52 is ground zero in the battle over the Republican soul – or so say many political observers. House Speaker Pro Tem Richard Morgan has represented the strongly Republican district for eight terms, including service as Rules Chairman under former Speaker Harold Brubaker. After his deal with Speaker Jim Black in late 2002/early 2003, Morgan and his contingent of Republicans become persona non grata within statewide GOP circles. Some were defeated in 2004 primaries, but Morgan survived (by about 250 votes) a challenge in this strongly Republican district from political newcomer Peggy Crutchfield. The 2006 race features a challenge from Joe Boylan, a small-business owner and local GOP activist. The primary battles across the state cannot be boiled down to this one result, of course – though depending on the outcome, expect the relevant faction to attempt just that.

There is a crowded primary in Randolph County’s House 70, where veteran lawmaker Arlie Culp is retiring. It’s a strongly Republican district, though technically the GOP nominee will have to defeat the wonderfully named Democrat in the race, former Ramseur Mayor Happy Spivey. The four candidates are Lou Wilson, a longtime nursing-home lobbyist in Raleigh; Jim Parker, former mayor of Liberty and challenger to Culp in 2004; local contractor David Craven; and Pat Hurley, who is reportedly not related to the lottery winner on Lost.

In House 79, there may or may not be a Morgan-implicated primary. As happened in the House 15 case of Grady vs. Pollard, the state board of elections has just ruled that the anti-Morgan challenger, former Rep. Frank Mitchell, does not reside in the district. If nothing changes, that would leave veteran Rep. Julia Howard with a clear path to another term. However, if a state court overturns the board of elections ruling, that could lead to a special election. A good account of the controversy is here.

Soap opera again. Rep. Monroe “Buck” Buchanan, ally of Black and Morgan, used to represent the mountainous District 84. Philip Frye, former mayor of Spruce Pine, defeated Buchanan in 2002. He did it again in 2004. Buchanan is back for a third try at a comeback. He used to drive a truck. We do not appear to have ourselves a convoy here, politically speaking.

Republican Karen Ray was elected in 2002 in a new House District 95, in southern Iredell County. At the time a county commissioner, Ray defeated a former nine-term state representative from the area, Robert Brawley, in the primary. He ran for insurance commissioner as a Republican in 2004 and is now seeking to return to the House. Brawley is stressing Ray’s political support for Richard Morgan (not in a positive sense). The contest is, how should I put this, not a friendly one.

Speaking of an unfriendly contest, the primary between incumbent Republican Rep. John Rhodes and former Cornelius Town Commissioner Thom Tillis must be filed in the bitter category. The primary is the election in this strongly Republican Mecklenburg seat. Tillis is criticizing Rhodes for a combative style, particularly with respect to fellow Mecklenburg lawmaker Jim Black, that according to Tillis has harmed the district’s prospects for securing transportation and other funding from the state. Rhodes defends himself by arguing that he should vote his principles, even if they place him in a minority of one. Area Republicans will make the call.

Sorry for the short list. The comprehensive one comes after the May primary.

Consider yourself warned.

Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation.