RALEIGH – The North Carolina Republican Party has just consigned itself to bitter defeat in November and frustrated powerlessness in Raleigh throughout the rest of the decade.

Or, the North Carolina Republican Party has just taken its first steps towards political recovery by shedding itself of Speaker Jim Black’s allies and offering a unified, straightforward, distinct alternative to Democratic governance of the state.

You’ll hear both takes on the primary results of 2006. One will emanate from various political commentators and Raleigh insiders, as well as Republican consultants and interest groups allied with soon-to-be-former Rep. Richard Morgan. The other take will come from a clear majority of GOP leaders, activists, donors, and primary voters. Each side will claim empirical support for its proposition. The “what a disaster!” camp will point to the 2004 election cycle, when a series of primary battles in the NC House between allies and foes of Morgan resulted in mostly wins for the anti-Morgan forces – but left lingering divisions and depleted campaign coffers, probably helping Democrats win several competitive races and retake the chamber. On the other hand, the “what a relief!” camp will look back even further, to 2001 and 2002, when most Republicans supported a court challenge to a Democratic gerrymander of House and Senate districts. Morgan’s faction did not. After Republicans won a 61-59 majority in 2002, his faction worked secretly with Black to form a leadership coalition with Democrats as the senior partner, a strategy that began with a party switch by Michael Decker.

Expect the debate to continue. Some will ask: What’s the point of cleaning house, defeating Morgan and his friends, if the result is simply to continue a feud that will weaken GOP candidates in the fall? Others will ask: What’s the point of Republicans helping to elect or re-elect GOP candidates that they know are likely to support continued Democratic governance in the legislature? In part, the debate stems from each side misunderstanding the other’s goals. One group thinks that the goal of any political party must be to maximize the number of seats won, and thus potentially the amount of influence wielded in a legislative body. The other group thinks that the goal of a political party is to accomplish some shared policy end, for which electoral success is a means. The two sides are essentially speaking a different language.

Only one thing is certain at the moment. Morgan and Co. took it on the chin in Tuesday’s primaries. Not only did Joe Boylan overcome the odds to defeat an eight-term incumbent, but also Marilyn Avila surviving a blistering ad attack in Wake County’s House 40 to defeat Rep. Rick Eddins by a huge margin; Morgan ally Rep. Steve LaRoque appears to have narrowly lost a challenge from conservative Willie Ray Starling in the 10th District; Reps. Philip Frye in the 84th and George Cleveland in the 14th turned back challengers allied to Morgan; and Michael Speciale defeated Mike Gorman in a 3rd District GOP primary rematch that again revolved around Gorman’s service in the Morgan faction. Speciale will face Democratic Rep. Alice Graham Underhill in the fall.

In short, it was a blowout win for the conservatives. A win in the primaries, I should say. Now the debate will start as to whether the result will be viewed as a victory in retrospect – after November. At the moment, however, you can be sure that those who make up the core of the Republican Party are exultant, exuberant, and energized.

Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation.