RALEIGH – If the competitive races for North Carolina House this year are likely to feature efforts either to link or distinguish Democratic candidates and controversial Speaker Jim Black, surely the same can’t be said about the competitive races for North Carolina Senate, right?

Wrong. And don’t call me Shirley.*

There are many fewer races in play in the Senate. It is an entirely separate institution and political structure – Senate leader Marc Basnight wields power differently than Black does, and Senate Republicans cohere while House Republicans combust. Plus, the 29-21 Democratic majority is far more secure. And yet, what I’m seeing and hearing about the 2006 Senate races leads me to believe that Republicans plan to make the Jim Black scandal a common theme – and Democrats, knowing that, have been preparing to respond.

The traditional post-Labor Day gear-shifting in campaign activity is underway. Fundraising trends and other factors could add to or subtract from it by November, and consultants on both sides keep talking about a few sleeper races I don’t yet buy, but here is my current list of the six most-competitive Senate races. It includes three Democratic incumbents, two Republican incumbents, and one Democratic open seat. As is customary, I’ll group the races regionally.

The Coastal Couple

• District 2: Democrat Pete Bland vs. Republican Jean Preston
There is no question that this traditionally competitive seat, centered on New Bern, represents one of the best chances for a Republican pick-up in 2006. Sen. Scott Thomas’s retirement led to the appointment of Bland earlier this year. Preston, a retired educator and 14-year House member from Carteret County, can virtually run as an incumbent in part of this district. However, so can Bland – not only because he spent some time, however brief, as the District 2 senator this year but more importantly because he served 16 years as Craven County Sheriff and also chaired the county commission there.

• District 9: Democrat Julia Boseman (i) vs. Republican Al Roseman
It is the stuff of punistry paradise, or perhaps a number from “Singing in the Rain”: “Boseman and Roseman/Who knows what fate throws them?/A campaign of shows, highs and lows, may expose them/Or rows of staid prose may with substance enclose them.” Seriously, the victory of Boseman, a former New Hanover commissioner, over Republican Woody White was one of the most compelling events of the 2004 cycle. While the aggressive antics of Republican “allies” of White backfired in the rapidly growing Wilmington environs, Democrats have certainly recognized the potential vulnerability of Boseman, openly gay, among some voters. It is no accident that she has taken the lead in Raleigh on cultural issues such as violence in video games and requiring public schools to stage daily recitations of the Pledge of Allegiance. Boseman has also been among the most vocal Democratic critics of Black. For his part, Roseman is emphasizing issues such as illegal immigration, education, ethics (hmm), and ending transfers of money from the Highway Trust Fund.

Webster’s Eviction – Nary

• District 24: Democrat Tony Foriest vs. Republican Hugh Webster (i)
Everyone keeps putting this swing Alamance-Caswell district on the watch list for competitive Senate races, and Webster keeps winning fairly easily. I’m a go-with-the-flow kind of guy, obviously, so I’ll include District 24 again this year even though Webster, an accountant and conservative stalwart, has drawn the same challenger, Foriest, that gave him little trouble in 2004. My guess is that Foriest, a retired Xerox executive and former chairman of the county party, would be an impressive candidate and more successful if pursuing a different seat or office. Still, in a year that save the Black factor would likely favor Democrats up and down the ballot, his prospects shouldn’t yet be dismissed.

Into the West

• District 46: Democrat Walter Dalton (i) vs. Republican Wes Westmoreland
Though in no other way, Dalton is a sort-of mirror image of Webster when it comes to incumbent senators in seemingly competitive districts who end up outpacing their challengers without breaking too much of a sweat. Westmoreland, head of a printing company and former chairman of the Cleveland County GOP, is counting on 2006 being different. He is challenging the Democrat’s votes on taxes and pork-barrel spending, among other concerns. Dalton, an attorney and 10-year veteran of the Senate, is reportedly considering a run for lieutenant governor in 2008. He argues that his fiscal record is one of funding educational initiatives and “keep[ing] taxes low.”

• District 47: Democrat Joe Sam Queen vs. Republican Keith Presnell (i)
In 2004, Republicans knew that any improvement in their Senate numbers had to start in this moderately Republican mountain district, sprawling across Avery, Haywood, Madison, McDowell, Mitchell, and Yancey counties. It was represented by Queen. Presnell, former chairman of his county commission, won the primary and went on to defeat Queen. But GOP prospects soured elsewhere, and the party actually lost ground in the Senate. This year, Queen is making a comeback bid, emphasizing his support for targeted business incentives and his track record of bringing state dollars into the district. Presnell is stressing sales- and gas-tax reductions, reforms in education and transportation, and his work ethic (he was one of only two state senators to participate in 100 percent of floor votes this session).

• District 50: Democrat John Snow (i) vs. Republican Ken McKim
If the 9th District Senate race in 2004 was among the most compelling, the 50th District race pitting longtime incumbent Republican Bob Carpenter against retired Judge Snow was perhaps the most shocking. This moderately Republican district in the far western counties of the state went blue – ok, in Snow’s case, more of a bluish purple – even though the state went red for president and U.S. Senate, and most of the district went red on other state races. Snow got a great deal of financial help from Senate leader Basnight last time. That’s happening again. McKim, a young conservative activist and co-owner of a construction company, is campaigning on taxes, property rights, and a proposed constitutional amendment on marriage.

With Republicans needing a net gain of five seats to win a majority, the NC Senate will most likely remain Democratic a while longer – even though more North Carolinians voted for GOP candidates than for Democratic ones in some recent cycles. If you don’t like partisan gerrymandering, it’s time to start agitating for an alternative system. In the meantime, both major parties must compete on the current playing field, under the current rules (apparently with some exceptions).

Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation.

*I will genuflect in the general direction of the first reader who correctly identifies the originator of this comedic catchphrase.

10:45am Update: We have a winner. Berry and/or Cinnamon Narron came up with the Marx Brothers. Lots of entries citing Airpane, but the famous line from the Leslie Nielson character was honoring earlier comedic roots.