RALEIGH – Who will vote on July 20?

Millions of North Carolinians could vote. They are registered to vote. But fewer than half of state residents registered to vote choose to do so on an average Election Day. The number is smaller for primaries like those scheduled next month, and smaller still on off-year local elections.

Don’t worry. This isn’t yet another of those wincing “whence and whither the Republic?” pieces about low voter turnout. It’s nothing to celebrate, don’t get me wrong, but the percentage of folks who vote is not a useful indicator of the health of self-government. I am more worried about uninformed voting – an electorate forced or shamed into casting ballots for candidates they’ve never heard of and about issues they don’t know or care about.

I speculate about July 20 because there really is a mystery about who will vote, a mystery that hundreds of North Carolina candidates and consultants continue to try to solve with just three weeks left. The common assumption is that a mid-summer primary will generate a low turnout, 20 percent or less, dominated by the Left in the Democratic Party and by the Right among Republicans. I tend to agree with this position, as far as it goes, but that’s not particularly far – it’s less a broad jump than a bunny hop.

In the GOP race for governor, for example, none of the candidates is really running as an old-fashioned, 1970s or 1980s Republican moderate. They all advocate fiscal conservatism, call for pro-growth tax cuts, and promote regulatory relief, government efficiency, and reform of the state’s economic-incentives policies to focus more attention on the needs of smaller, less-politicized businesses. Most are conservative on social and family issues, as well, though businessman George Little doesn’t excoriate gambling as the others do and Richard Vinroot wouldn’t oppose the holding of a lottery referendum (though he says he’d still argue against its passage).

So to say that “conservatives” will vote on July 20 tells us surprisingly little about the potential outcome.

Another theory I’ve heard, and espoused, is that Republican turnout is likely to be higher in the Piedmont and Western counties encompassed by the 5th and 10th congressional districts, both open seats drawing a crowded field of well-financed politicians looking to stake long-term claims on two safe GOP seats. Will this help Vinroot, whose support is stronger on that side of the state? Perhaps. But there are some spirited GOP primaries for state legislature and even county commission in places like Wake County (likely to help former Triangle congressman Bill Cobey), Pender and New Hanover counties (in Patrick Ballantine’s home base), Moore County (Little territory), Union County (where Sen. Fern Shubert enjoys her largest following), and Davie County (which I would call County Commissioner Dan Barrett’s stomping ground, except that he’s lately been footing it across the whole state).

Lumpy turnouts could affect Democratic races, as well, for such offices as state superintendent of public instruction. Again, competitive legislative races could play a role, such as the Malcolm Graham-Fountain Odom face-off for state senate in Mecklenburg and several crowded fields in Eastern NC districts.

This turnout conundrum is one reason not to pay an inordinate amount of attention to the polls that have come out the past couple of weeks. The underlying data might be sound, but every pollster has a different way of weighting the numbers to attempt to reflect the probable composition of a primary electorate in a state that doesn’t usually hold such contests in mid-July.

They can’t all be correct. And they may all be wrong.

Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation and publisher of Carolina Journal.

p.s. A couple of related editorial notes, if I may. First, as the primary date approaches rapidly, there’s a handy way to go back and re-read Carolina Journal’s coverage of the issues and candidates in North Carolina’s 2004 election cycle. Just click here to go to the exclusive series on “Covering the 2004 Elections.” Obviously, some of the material has been outstripped by events but you might still find it interesting. And when you come across a prediction that I or another writer made that has turned out to be dead wrong, you have our permission to forget this immediately.

Second, even this useful archive of material won’t be enough to give you a truly broad look at what North Carolina’s political observers and insiders are talking about this election year. For that, you’re going to need the new 2004 primary-election guide being produced by our friends at “N.C. Spin.” The guide provides a rundown on all the key primary races and issues featuring the comments of “N.C. Spin” host Tom Campbell, my weekly sparring partner Chris Fitzsimon, and other panelists. You can visit here to order your copy of the primary-election guide today.