Around the capital city this week, I’ve been hearing the same rumors a lot of folks are hearing – and passing along – about next week’s pivotal vote for Speaker of the North Carolina House.

With Republicans enjoying only a 61-59 majority after the November elections, dissidents in both parties will play a key role in determining the outcome. The Republican caucus picked Leo Daughtry of Johnston County, the former majority leader and gubernatorial candidate, to be their standard-bearer for speaker, though hardly overwhelmingly. A large dissident faction picked Rep. Connie Wilson of Mecklenburg. A smaller, but more committed, contingent favors Daughtry foil Richard Morgan of Moore or someone of Moore’s preference, such as Wilmington’s Danny McComas.

On the Democratic side, outgoing Speaker Jim Black of Mecklenburg has the support of most members for an attempt at a third term, even as the leader of the now-minority party. Obviously, for this to happen Republicans must continue their division and some of the five Democrats, including would-be speaker Martin Nesbitt of Buncombe and influential Mickey Michaux of Durham, that currently oppose Black would have to come home.

My bet is that we’ll see a Republican speaker elected next week – or, perhaps, the week after if things get wild and wooly. Here are three scenarios, which I see as roughly equivalent in their probability:

  • Daughtry’s Daredevil Stunt. The current Republican leader does have most of the caucus behind him, although some seem reluctant. If by cajoling and promising he can take a few more votes away from the Morgan faction and add several crossover Dems, Daughtry could still be elected speaker. This might well be a suspenseful and scary scenario, with a close vote and a lot of uncertainty on all sides.
  • 3M and Scotch Tape. Though it would seem a bit out of character, Richard Morgan could prevail by engineering a deal with most Democrats to cross over, vote for McComas as speaker, and thus receive some committee posts and other goodies. Morgan would then make a bid to return as majority leader, with Wake County Rep. David Miner joining in as a key committee chair. This arrangement would hardly be a secure one over the course of the session, held together more with tape than super glue. (To give credit where it is due, the “3M” moniker is the invention of my sparring partner Chris Fitzsimon of the Common Sense Foundation).
  • Lincoln’s Emasculation Proclamation. Another option is that in the days leading up to the vote, key Republicans may come to Daughtry and demand that he prove his ability to get a majority of votes. If his bid looks like it’s faltering, they may ask him to step aside in favor of a consensus candidate. An obvious one would be Lincoln County’s Republican representative, Joe Kiser, who has already received a unanimous vote from the GOP caucus for majority leader.

Don’t believe anyone who tells you the outcome is preordained. This deal isn’t done yet.

Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation and publisher of Carolina Journal.