RALEIGH – The presidential voting begins in just five short weeks. (I say short because the last two weeks, including Christmas and New Year’s, won’t be congenial to politics.) The way I see it, the results of the first contest, the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 3, will set into motion two of six potential scenarios for how things will play out.

Let’s start with the GOP. Mitt Romney is leading in Iowa and New Hampshire. Rudy Giuliani is not really contesting Iowa but is starting to spend money in New Hampshire. Mike Huckabee is surging in Iowa and hopes that a strong second-place showing, at least, will scramble the race. John McCain is hoping for a New Hampshire miracle. Fred Thompson is counting on a win in South Carolina to negate the effects of the earlier contests, where he’s currently not polling well.

Here are the scenarios:

• Romney the Hare. He wins Iowa convincingly, with about a third of the vote. Giuliani and Thompson are in the low- to mid-teens. The size of his victory generates a wave of free media coverage, aided by his subsequent win in the small but well-timed Wyoming caucuses on Jan. 5. Romney then dominates New Hampshire on Jan. 8, generating another media boost. In the next state, Michigan on Jan. 15, Giuliani had enjoyed a narrow lead going into January, but now Romney – with Michigan family ties and lots of momentum – overtakes him to win. Four days later, Nevada and South Carolina vote. He wins both. The other candidates have already dropped out or give up after Jan. 19. It’s a two-man race with Giuliani going into Florida on the 29th. Now that all other conservative challengers are gone, Romney unifies the anti-Giuliani vote and wins Florida. It’s over.

• Giuliani the Tortoise. With all but Romney and Huckabee essentially conceding Iowa, its results are underplayed. Giuliani’s December ad campaign in New Hampshire pushes him into the mid-20s in the state – not enough to win, but enough to shave Romney’s margin and give him a Bill Clinton-like “victory” as second-place Comeback Kid. A week later, Giuliani competes in a larger state where his national reputation and cultural affinity are helpful. He wins Michigan. A week later, he wins Nevada and is competitive in South Carolina (it would probably help if Thompson, otherwise winless, takes South Carolina and weakens Romney). Finally, Giuliani gets to Florida, parts of which are essentially a suburb of Manhattan, and wins comfortably. Then comes Feb. 5. It’s over.

• Thompson the Possum. The Republican primary electorate is quirky and quarrelsome. A continued Huckabee surge in Iowa robs Romney of a convincing win, yielding a loss in the expectations game. In New Hampshire, McCain, Thompson, and Giuliani do better than expected, Romney worse. He barely ekes out a victory. In Michigan, Romney sputters and both McCain and Thompson pick up anti-Giuliani votes, yielding a narrow Giuliani win but no clear momentum. Then comes Nevada and South Carolina. With Romney’s collapse, conservatives edge towards Thompson. He comes in a strong second in Nevada and wins South Carolina. Given its historical importance, the South Carolina result gets more attention, and the media declare it a two-way race between Giuliani and Thompson. The Southerner then competes strongly in the Southern – by which I mean northern – part of Florida, upends Giuliani, and moves into Feb. 5 with momentum. It’s not quite over, but the patient sleeper has supplanted the frenetic hare.

And now the Democrats. These scenarios are easier and shorter.

• Clinton the Queen Bee. She wins Iowa. She wins New Hampshire. She wins Michigan. She wins Nevada. She wins South Carolina. She wins . . . (zzzzz)

• Obama the Bear Cub. The young upstart Obama wins Iowa narrowly, swatting Edwards aside (and out of the race) and sticking his hand brazenly into the hive. He provokes a swarm of stinging attacks by the Clinton team, which he attempts to answer with hopeful rhetoric and subtlety, despite the fact that his public face swells up, misshapen and unrecognizable. Clinton wins New Hampshire by 15 points, reaping the political benefit of bouncing back from a “loss” (see Clinton Comeback Kid reference above), then wins Michigan by 20-25 points. Obama flees to soak his head in the cool water of Lake Michigan. It’s over.

• Edwards the Skunk. He wins Iowa narrowly, briefly annoying the Clinton and Obama camps. There’s a boomlet of positive Edwards spin, but Obama is well-funded and remains in play. Unfortunately, Edwards has nowhere to go. Clinton still wins New Hampshire (see Clinton Comeback Kid reference above). Edwards comes in third in Michigan and in his native South Carolina. It’s over.

Which critter will it be?

Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation.