RALEIGH – The American Enterprise Institute in Washington has long had an expertise in collecting and interpreting public-opinion data. Years ago, AEI published the influential journal Public Opinion, which was later folded into a broader-interest magazine The American Enterprise, now simply called The American.
AEI’s work on public opinion is now contained in periodic newsletters. Yesterday, I received the November-December edition of AEI’s Political Report. I promptly devoured it. Here are some of the tastiest morsels of polling data I swallowed:
• While concerned about the recession and other challenging issues, Americans remain optimistic about their own futures and hopeful about Barack Obama. About two-thirds of respondents in post-election polls said the country will be better off four years from now, and about the same number had a favorable impression of Obama – although many of them, obviously, didn’t vote for him.
• Stronger turnout and Democratic allegiance among minorities was a more important factor in explaining Obama’s victory than Democratic improvement among white voters. Obama won 43 percent of the white vote, vs. 41 percent for Kerry and 42 percent for Gore. But Black and Hispanic voters made up a larger share of the electorate than before, and broke more heavily to the Democratic candidate – Obama got 95 percent of African-Americans, up from Kerry’s 88 percent, and 66 percent of Hispanics, up from 56 percent.
• The public voted for change in leadership but not necessarily for big government. In the exit polls, voter opposed the financial bailout by 56 percent to 39 percent. Two thirds favored offshore drilling. A separate post-election poll found that only 29 percent believed Obama should shut down the detention center at Guantanamo, while 44 percent said he should not and the rest weren’t sure. On the other hand, 60 percent said it’s the government job to ensure that everyone has adequate health care (though such a job could be accomplished in a variety of ways, not just by expanding government-run health plans).
• Public opinion is divided about how President Obama should handle relations with Iran. While a third say he should meet with Iran’s president without any preconditions, 42 percent say he should agree to a meeting only after Iran changes some of its most-egregious policies, with another 22 percent saying Obama shouldn’t meet with current Iranian leaders under any circumstances.
• Cable channels outperformed broadcast TV when it came to delivering political news. While 44 percent said cable was their primary news sources during the campaign, only 18 percent said that about broadcast networks. The Internet (36 percent) edged out newspaper (33 percent) as a primary source, though of course a big chunk of “Internet” coverage of politics is actually written by newspaper reporters or AP staffers. So writers can feel good about the fact that their work is being read – but not so good about the fact that their employers are increasingly unable to transform their work into a reliable revenue stream.
If you’re still hungry for more, don’t forget that the Civitas Institute goes into the field with polls of North Carolina voters at least once a month. Their post-election poll makes for particularly interesting reading.
Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation