RALEIGH – The comparative few North Carolinians who turned out to vote in Tuesday’s runoff primaries appear to have created a new conservative Republican star in a squeaker (Patrick McHenry in the 10th Congressional District), delivered a stunning setback to a longtime conservative Republican activist (Vernon Robinson in the 5th District), and opted for stability rather than change in North Carolina education policy by picking June Atkinson over Marshall Stewart in the Democratic contest for state superintendent of public instruction.
I can’t say any of these outcomes surprised me, since I had absolutely no idea what was going to happen. No one did – or perhaps a few did but kept their mouths shut. With teensy turnout, electoral dynamics are impossible to foresee.
Some races were settled Tuesday by a scant few votes. Patrick McHenry – the young state representative who used hard work, inspired volunteers, and corny door-to-door campaigning to overcome Catawba Sheriff David Huffman’s institutional advantages – seems to have won the Republican nomination in the Catawba Valley’s 10th District by just 128 votes out of about 30,000 votes cast. Unless something bizarre happens, these precious check marks in his column will have elected a congressman.
For Vernon Robinson, whom I have known for a long time as an indefatigable advocate for conservative principles, the election results must have been a severe disappointment. Like Huffman, he was the top vote-getter in the original July 20 primary but could not close the deal. Some will argue that Robinson took his flamboyant and aggressive style too far, that he alienated voters allied with the other Republican in the race and had them opt for State Sen. Virginia Foxx, also a tireless campaigner and strong conservative. Others will note that, once again, a small-turnout election is full of quirks and kinks. A flair for publicity and a turn of phrase might garner media attention and create momentum in a normal election, but when just a core group of motivated voters show up, they are more likely to know candidates personally and ignore the fireworks.
I’m inclined to believe that Robinson didn’t lose the race, but Foxx won it. She represented much of the 5th Congressional District for years as a state senator and had significant political talents of her own. By the way, it turns out that both McHenry and Foxx may have benefitted by not being from the most populous county in their respective districts. After a slew of Catawba and Forsyth Republican finished beating each other up in their home territories, Hickory’s likely congressman ended up being from rural Gaston County and Winston-Salem’s congresswoman from the mountains.
As for the Atkinson triumph over Stewart, the statewide turnout was less than teensy. I think the technical political-science term is teensy-weensy. I’m guessing that Stewart’s skepticism about the conduct and extent of North Carolina’s standardized-testing program might well have carried him to victory among a broader swath of Democratic activists in the state – though I believe that the general public largely favors testing and high academic standards. But among the actual runoff electorate, school employees and administrators probably played a disproportionate role, both as voters and as opinion leaders.
A few other notes are in order about the Tuesday runoffs. First, there were two Democratic legislative races in minority-heavy districts where black candidates or their supporters explicitly made a racial appeal to defeat their white competitors. In each case, the white Democratic prevailed – incumbent Clark Jenkins over Shelly Willingham in Senate 3 and Michael Wray over Richard Henderson in House 27.
Second, in two Republican runoffs in the NC House, clearly conservative candidates overcame Republicans with lengthier political careers and other advantages. In House 67 in and around Stanly County, David Almond won the most votes, just as he did on July 20, only this time it clinches things by defeating incumbent Bobby Harold Barbee, who had become at least a quasi-ally of controversial House Co-Speaker Richard Morgan. And in Forsyth County’s House 74, Dale Folwell defeated county commissioner Debra Conrad-Shrader, who had originally met with Morgan to discuss her candidacy but later distanced herself from the internal GOP struggle. Apparently not far enough. Both Almond and Folwell won easily.
In most cases, the victors on Tuesday will be the victors in November. So the political attention will shift elsewhere – perhaps to the new poll showing GOP gubernatorial nominee Patrick Ballantine now within striking distance (7 points) of Mike Easley, or to Erskine Bowles’ consistent eight to nine-point lead over Richard Burr in the U.S. Senate contest.
No rest for the weary.
Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation and publisher of Carolina Journal.