RALEIGH – National Review writer Byron York spoke Wednesday at a JLF luncheon in Raleigh. His entire rundown of the major Democratic and Republican candidates for president was interesting and entertaining, but one prediction that deserves particular emphasis: that because of Super-Duper Tuesday on Feb. 5, the nomination contests will be over faster, and the general election begin faster, than ever before.
As of this writing, it appears that something like 20 states, with a combined population of 126 million Americans, will hold their presidential contests on Feb. 5, shortly after the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries. There is even a move afoot to reschedule North Carolina’s nomination contest, traditionally held in May, up to Feb. 5, as well, perhaps at the same time changing it from a primary to a caucus to reduce and shift the expense.
The conventional wisdom is that staging this massive national primary battle after the first four skirmishes in January will end the electoral war. That’s probably true (though not everyone agrees). The conventional wisdom suggests that such a quick conclusion will favor the frontrunners. That’s also probably true. Furthermore, the conventional wisdom expects Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani to remain the frontrunners until then. I think that may still be premature.
Lots of Democrats expect Sen. Clinton to be nominated, but that doesn’t mean they are happy about it. The anti-war core has just about disowned her. Moderate and Southern Democrats fear they won’t be able to disown her, thus chaining their local candidates to an off-putting national ticket. Democratic pros aren’t crazy about the prospect of running a national campaign for a candidate whom nearly half the electorate has already decided to dislike.
I recognize that if she ends the year as the clear frontrunner, the primary schedule will probably coronate her. But there are several intervening months here. She might implode.
Similarly, Rudy Giuliani has had, in Byron York’s words, a “strong upswing” over the past couple of months. Sen. John McCain has moved the other way, and former Gov. Mitt Romney hasn’t moved much at all. Again, I could see the Giuliani boom go bust between now and the fall, either because of media exposes of his personal and business history or because of unforeseen international or political events. Yes, Democrats have more of a history than Republicans do of hotshot, frontrunning candidates cracking up on re-entry. Remember Gary Hartpence? Remember The Scream? But past investment results do not guarantee future returns.
One thing I’m sure of is that the Super-Duper Tuesday phenomenon is going to change the business of running and covering presidential campaigns. Tom Lowry, a columnist for Business Week, has observed that television stations will likely experience a significantly more lucrative 2007 than they might have originally expected, as candidates in early-primary states – which now make up nearly half the total – will shift their advertising buys back into fall or even summer 2007. Similarly, newspaper, magazine, and news-channel journalists are going to do their big-think and big-hit pieces earlier in the process. They’re already starting, in fact.
What would a February-to-November general election campaign for president look and feel like? That may not be a speculative issue for long.
Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation.