RALEIGH — In what was probably one of the most listened-to radio programs in the history of the medium, Rush Limbaugh returned to the airwaves Monday after five weeks in rehab for his addiction to prescription painkillers.
If you missed it — and I did, for the most part — here’s the transcript of his opening monologue. During the brief portion that I caught, I thought he sounded subdued, heartfelt, and more than a little nervous. His voice was uncharacteristically shaky.
In all honesty, however, I have nothing additional to say about Limbaugh and his personal problems. I really wish just about everyone else now going on and on about it would do the same. None of us truly knows what’s been going on in this man’s personal life, what’s been going on over the past five weeks, and what today must have been like for him. A double shot of humility and a chaser of mind-your-own-business would do a lot for the national conversation about now.
In the meantime, I do have a brief Limbaugh-related point to make. It has to do with his program, and with what I think is going to be a significant change in the radio business over the next few years. Simply put, the traditional market of local, commercially supported radio stations is about to get challenged in much the same way that network television has been challenged — the latter by cable and satellite, by videos and DVDs, and by video games.
The major TV networks have been losing audience steadily for many years as these competitors came on the scene. This year, the damage is particularly pronounced, with only one true (modest) hit among the entire set of 2003 shows: Joan of Arcadia, a Friday night drama on CBS that I quite like, actually. In the radio case, the threat is from satellite radio. Sure, the option — now available from at least two national vendors, Sirius Satellite Radio and XM Satellite Radio Holdings — hasn’t been taken by that many consumers yet. Like a lot of technological innovations, the earlier versions have been prohibitively expensive for all but affluent and adventuresome consumers. But now the services are chock-full of programming, the receivers are coming down in price, and most importantly the major auto manufacturers are starting to receive industry incentives to sell new cars with satellite radio pre-installed.
The attractions for users are several. Satellite radio offers continuity of programming for travelers across the country. It is largely commercial-free, though users must pay monthly subscription fees ($9.99 for XM, $12.95 for Sirius). Perhaps the greater attraction is the wide variety of programming options — about 100 channels of news, talk, comedy, “Playboy Radio” (for a premium, naturally), and dozens of different musical formats.
I don’t think that satellite radio is going to wipe out commercial broadcasters in one fell swoop, or even in a lot of little tumbling swoops. But I do think that broadcasters are going to start to feel the competitive pressure. If they are wise, they will adjust their business strategy to make sure that they take advantage of the one thing that satellite radio can’t provide: an intimate sense of place.
Consider the talk-radio business. Rush Limbaugh is in a league by himself. But for many other national talkers, satellite radio is going to become a significant player, one that some have will have the talent to compete with but others won’t. A few talkers are already offered on the satellite radio channels, including Michael Reagan and the libertarian Glen Beck. Others will follow. Fox News is starting its own radio network, currently featuring Alan Combes and soon to feature Tony Snow. The idea seems obviously suited to bringing a proven brand to a new national audience, and will likely end up on satellite if it becomes a challenge for Fox to assemble a new national network of radio affiliates. The same goes for whatever left-wing broadcast network is finally put together.
In a satellite radio world, listeners from the biggest markets to the smallest will likely have a variety of conservative and liberal talk channels to choose from (Sirius already leans a little to the liberal side and XM more conservative, though both offer enough to interest just about anyone).
To thrive in this environment, I suspect, local stations will have to emphasize local content. That means reversing the current drift in some markets away from local afternoon hosts, and even local morning hosts, in favor of nationally syndicated programming. It’s cheaper to buy syndicated programming, sure, but once the audience starts have satellite radio as an option, will they listen to a local rebroadcaster with far more commercials and, sometimes, a weaker signal? I think the odds are much better if local stations can still give listeners what they can’t get anywhere else, things like local news, local traffic, local weather, and interactive discussion about topics closer to home than the latest Washington scandal, filibuster, or political posturing.
Just a passing thought, on a most unlikely day.
Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation and host of the weekly newsmagazine program “Carolina Journal Radio.”.